While parties look to #FillUpTheStadium, rallies are no indicator of election results

As election season gets into full swing, many political parties will seek to attract big crowds at their rallies — but filling up a stadium does not directly translate to votes.

On Saturday, the EFF held its manifesto launch — the first of the major political parties to do so. The party held its gathering in the election battleground of KwaZulu-Natal, which is believed to be up for grabs with the entry of Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party and the strength of the IFP, which is expected to give the ANC a run for its money.

KZN has South Africa’s second-largest number of voters after Gauteng, which makes it an important province for parties to penetrate. Current polling suggests that the ANC will lose its majority in the province, where it won 54.22% in 2019.

While the province is not an EFF stronghold, as the third-largest party in South Africa, the Red Berets believed they could fill Durban’s 56,000-seater Moses Mabhida Stadium.

However, it was a tough ask as they had decided not to bus in members from other provinces, and the party, which filled Johannesburg’s 94,000-seater FNB Stadium beyond capacity for its 10th anniversary, fell short in Durban.

A visibly ill Malema was cheered on by supporters in the stadium, which was about 70% full.

The EFF’s deputy president, Floyd Shivambu, who is deployed to oversee KZN for the party, was tasked with filling the stadium. The EFF in the province is led by the party’s recently appointed KZN chairperson Mongezi Twala.

It is believed that heads will roll after the EFF failed to fill the stadium, despite Malema expressing his gratitude to Shivambu and the province’s ground forces in his speech.

“I am very happy that the KZN comrades were able to fill up this stadium on their own without comrades from other provinces. You have made history today, and you must be proud of yourself that those who said you will never enter Mabhida, you entered Mabhida and those who said there is no EFF in KZN today, they have scientific proof that there is EFF in KZN.

“Those who thought EFF is a regional organisation today know that the EFF is a national organisation and therefore I am happy to be part of this history, and that many generations to come will read that the EFF went to break new grounds in a difficult province and made it alive,” Malema said.

Ego and clout 

The ANC secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, took to X to criticise the poor attendance. Others on social media followed suit and mocked Malema.

The EFF has been run as a mass organisation anchored by protest action and even in its earlier days was able to mobilise some of the largest crowds of any political party.

Besides the success of its anniversary celebrations last year, in 2015 the EFF held a peaceful demonstration which attracted about 50,000 people at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in Sandton.

It has also had its fair share of lukewarm gatherings, like last year’s failed “national shutdown”.

However, there is no evidence that people attending a political party’s rallies have any intention of voting or are even registered to do so.

South Africans attend rallies for many reasons. While some might be staunch supporters of the political party holding the rally, others could be enticed by the free T-shirt and food parcel they receive for being there.

EFF predicted to grow

The EFF is the fourth-largest party in KwaZulu-Natal, where it received 349,361 votes (9%) in the provincial election in 2019 and seeks to grow further in this year’s elections.

It won 10.8% nationally in 2019. A recent Ipsos poll put the party at 19.6% in this year’s general election. Another recent poll suggested the EFF could take 16% nationally and 12% in KZN. An October 2023 Ipsos poll found the EFF would win 13% of the vote in KZN.

However, these surveys were conducted before Zuma launched the MK party and took aim at the ANC. The voter appeal of the MK party is unknown — but it will take away ANC voters.

In the end, no matter how many supporters attend parties’ rallies, the only number that counts is the number of voters who mark their X on election day. DM