Mavericks vs. Clippers prediction, odds, schedule for 2024 NBA Playoffs first round series

Mavericks vs. Clippers prediction, odds, schedule for 2024 NBA Playoffs first round series

For the third time in five seasons, the Clippers and Mavericks will meet in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

After meeting in 2020 and 2021, the two teams will run it back for a third installment of an evolving postseason rivalry. And while the team names remain the same, plenty has changed since the last playoff meeting between the teams.

For Dallas, everything still starts with Luka Doncic, but he now has a new playoff running mate in Kyrie Irving, who has been playing at an elite level to close the regular season. On the other side, the Clippers still operate around Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, but they’ll now have James Harden and Russell Westbrook in the mix.

The Clippers got the best of the Mavericks in the previous two playoff meetings. What will happen this time?

MORE: TSN’s Steph Noh shares his expert All-NBA picks

Mavericks vs. Clippers prediction

Prediction: Mavericks in seven games

Dallas is one of the NBA’s hottest teams and has the best player in the series in Doncic.

This series could follow the script from the Mavericks’ conference semifinals win in 2022 — both teams take care of home court but the best player makes the biggest difference in a decisive game.

It helps that Doncic has a history of playing well against LA. Through 18 career games vs. Clippers, Doncic is averaging 32.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.4 assists. The only team he has a higher scoring average against is the Pistons.

Mavericks vs. Clippers odds

The Clippers (-115) open the series as slight favorites over the Mavericks (-105), per NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Mavericks vs. Clippers schedule

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Mavericks vs. Clippers regular season series

The Clippers and Mavericks met three times during the 2023-24 regular season. LA won the series 2-1.

• Nov. 10, 2023: Mavericks 144, Clippers 126 (In-Season Tournament)
• Nov. 25, 2023: Clippers 107, Mavericks 88
• Dec. 20, 2023: Clippers 120, Mavericks 111

Context is important for these results, especially because Game 1 of the playoffs will come four months after the last meeting between Dallas and LA. Each meeting occurred before the Mavericks’ transformative trade deadline in which they added starters P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford.

The first matchup between the two teams was Harden’s third in a Clippers uniform, and Westbrook was still in the starting lineup. Dallas took full advantage of LA’s dysfunction and cruised to an 18-point win thanks to 44 points (on 17-of-21 shooting) from Doncic.

After Westbrook moved to the bench, the Clippers started finding clarity. In LA’s win over Dallas on Nov. 25, Westbrook turned in 14 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in a reserve role. The win is even more impressive considering Leonard had just eight points on 2-of-12 shooting.

The season series wrapped in Dallas on Dec. 20 with both George and Irving sidelined. With each team down a star, it was Leonard who dominated, scoring 30 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out five assists. Doncic scored 28 points but shot 36.0 percent from the field and 18.2 percent from 3-point range.

Mavericks vs. Clippers key storyline: Kawhi Leonard’s health

After enjoying a clean bill of health throughout the 2023-24 regular season, Leonard experienced discomfort in his right knee following a win over the Hornets on March 31. The injury has been designated as right knee inflammation and will keep Leonard sidelined for at least six of the final seven games of the regular season.

Naturally, the injury now looms over this first-round series.

Before experiencing knee discomfort, Leonard showed shades of his Finals MVP form with averages of 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Even more impressive? He did it all while shooting 52.5 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from 3-point range.

It’s no secret that Leonard taps into another gear when the postseason rolls around, something he showed flashes of during last year’s playoffs before a meniscus injury derailed everything.

The Clippers’ ceiling depends on Leonard’s health — it’s the difference between title contention and a first-round exit.

On April 7, Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue expressed no concern about Leonard’s knee, but it is worth noting that Leonard could enter the playoffs having not played in nearly three weeks. And while that time is beneficial for rest, it could result in some rust and timing issues.

In a series where the Mavericks can count on heroics from Doncic and Irving, LA will need the playoff version of Leonard to lead the way with George and Harden falling in line after.