Soggy forecast for Ravens-Chiefs as rainstorm set to soak Baltimore, D.C.

Soggy forecast for Ravens-Chiefs as rainstorm set to soak Baltimore, D.C.

It won’t be a blizzard that impacts an NFL playoff game this weekend, like the one that forced the Buffalo Bills to postpone their home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on wild-card weekend. Instead, it’s soaking rain that could make for a soggy Sunday across the Baltimore-Washington region as the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game at M&T Bank Stadium.

It’s too early to say if the rain will be heavy enough to significantly affect passing and kicking or if it will be lighter showers that are more just a nuisance to fans. Isolated areas of flooding are possible across the region Saturday night into Sunday, but it doesn’t appear the rain will be heavy enough for widespread flooding concerns despite how wet it’s been this month and this winter to date.

Temperatures will be much more comfortable than during the Ravens’ last game on Saturday against the Houston Texans in Baltimore, when the temperature around kickoff was 24 degrees with a wind chill of 4. The previous weekend, the Chiefs hosted the coldest game ever at Arrowhead Stadium and the fourth-coldest game in NFL history against the Miami Dolphins, with a kickoff temperature of minus-4 degrees and wind chill of minus-27.

The rain could end as a little snow Sunday night before the precipitation departs.

Model forecast of rainfall amounts (in inches) Saturday evening to Sunday evening. (WeatherBell)

The forecast

The weekend starts with a partly to mostly cloudy and mostly dry Saturday, at least through much of the day. Rain should move into the Baltimore-Washington region from the west and south early Saturday evening, with periods of rain likely through the night and into much of Sunday.

It’s not impossible that the rain could taper to just lighter showers by Sunday afternoon, or that there could be a well-timed break in the rain during the game, which is scheduled for 3 p.m. Either way, it’s a damp, cooler and increasingly breezy day with temperatures mainly in the 40s. Winds should be from the north, sustained around 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts near 20 mph.

Total rainfall amounts of about 0.5 to 1 inch shouldn’t cause widespread flooding, but isolated areas of flooding are possible given how saturated the ground is.

Could the rain end as snow Sunday evening?

Model forecast shows possibility of rain changing to snow near or north and west of D.C. and Baltimore Sunday evening.

Models show that lingering rain showers could turn to wet snow showers Sunday evening and overnight, especially north of D.C., including in and around Baltimore. Some models even forecast a half-inch or so of accumulation.

It’s not certain that the atmosphere will cool down enough to change the rain to snow before the precipitation ends, and even if it does, model accumulation forecasts are probably overdone given that temperatures probably won’t fall lower than the mid-30s.

Still, we can’t rule out a burst of heavier snow that puts down a light accumulation, especially on grassy areas north and west of D.C. and Baltimore, and perhaps even a slushy coating on sidewalks and side roads if temperatures drop to about 32 to 34 degrees.

One of the wettest Januarys and winters so far

The 4.26 inches of precipitation in Washington from Jan. 1 through Wednesday is about double the normal amount for the period, following D.C.’s fourth-wettest December on record with 6.43 inches. With 10.69 inches since Dec. 1, this is the city’s second-wettest winter to date, only an inch behind the 11.69 inches that had fallen during the same period in the winter of 1936-1937.

Washington has already seen five calendar days with an inch or more of rain since Dec. 1, the most of any winter to date. The most for an entire winter was six, which occurred in both 1901-1902 and 1884-1885.

This is also the second-wettest winter to date in Baltimore, where the 12.36 inches through Wednesday is just behind the 12.59 inches that had fallen to date in 1936-1937.

Ian Livingston contributed to this report.