Eskom contradicts Ramokgopa – forecasts more crippling blackouts over the coming months
28/11/2023
A forecast by Eskom officials on the state of SA’s electricity system has shown that there will be consistent blackouts in December and January — contradicting the recent claims made by Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.
Eskom officials recently delivered a presentation to the Consumer Goods Council of SA, an industry body representing SA’s biggest retailers, detailing that the country will still be subject to deep power cuts in December and January.
Daily Maverick has seen the 30-page presentation dated 22 November.
The officials forecast that there will be blackouts (between stages 1 and 3) every day during December — except for three days. This is the best-case scenario, which relies on fewer unplanned breakdowns at Eskom power stations. The worst-case scenario involves load shedding of between stages 4 and 6 every day during December, with no respite. A similar best and worst-case scenario is forecast for January.
Eskom has forecast that the peak residual use over December and January will be between 23,000MW and 27,000MW, while planned outages (usually a result of generating units at power stations being taken offline for maintenance) are expected to be between 6,800MW and 10,100MW.
Exacerbating this situation is that unplanned outages (usually as a result of a breakdown in electricity generating units) are forecast to be above 16,000MW. In most scenarios during December and January, electricity shortfalls of more than 4,000MW are forecast by Eskom officials, necessitating the implementation of rolling blackouts.
Even for most of 2024 and early 2025, the electricity situation looks dire, with demand being on the rise and uncomfortable levels of unplanned blackouts being recorded, which puts the entire system in jeopardy (see below).
Arguably, the table above paints a picture of Eskom and the government being unable to fix the power crisis that undermines the economy and investments in the country and harms the quality of life.
The forecast by Eskom officials is in stark contrast to the promise made by Ramokgopa during his briefing on 26 November, when he assured the media there would be fewer blackouts over December and that some days would be free of blackouts.
Ramokgopa said electricity demand during December was expected to be lower against a backdrop of lower industrial demand, adding that this would make it possible to suspend blackouts on some days.
However, December is usually dicey for the electricity situation as hotter conditions during the month make power stations and their parts more susceptible to overheating and breakdowns. This has been the case going back seven years.
Ramokgopa has also pinned his hopes for an improved electricity situation in December on the return online of units 2 and 5 at the Kusile Power Station, which would provide Eskom with “sufficient capacity” to stave off high levels of blackouts.
Daily Maverick asked Eskom for comment on the presentation by its officials, but the power utility was not immediately available to comment. This article will be updated accordingly. DM
1024x768_france-antoine-dupont-and-fabian-galthie-oct-2023-jpg Fabien Galthie’s men went into the global tournament as one of the favourites but they were ousted in the last-eight. Les Bleus suffered a 29-28 defeat to the Springboks as they were eliminated at their home World Cup by the eventual champions. It was a similar story to 2019, ...
See Details: Antoine Dupont still hurt by 'injustice' of World Cup loss to Springboks
China’s New Aircraft Carrier Begins Catapult Testing Testing of the catapults on the Chinese aircraft carrier Fujian has begun. This is an important step forward in the construction of this ship, which is set to be the first carrier in the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, that launches aircraft ...
See Details: China's New Aircraft Carrier Begins Catapult Testing
Aircraft Downed Inside Russia By Patriot System: Ukrainian Air Force The Ukrainian Air Force has now confirmed that a number of Russian aircraft shot down back in May over their own territory were indeed destroyed by a foreign-supplied Patriot air defense system. The possibility that Ukraine’s newly acquired Patriots may ...
See Details: Aircraft Downed Inside Russia By Patriot System: Ukrainian Air Force
Exiled Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov delivers a speech during a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on April 20, 2022 in Brussels. Fedorov on Monday said Ukrainian partisans blew up a car with pro-Russian fighters inside over the weekend. A car with Chechen soldiers fighting ...
See Details: Car With Pro-Russian Fighters Blown Up by Resistance: Exiled Mayor
This year, a complex mix of insecurity, poverty and misgovernance has seen instability soar in Sahel. Among the immediate effects is a rise in forced and voluntary migration from the region to other parts of Africa and towards Europe, which is difficult to contain. According to Médecins Sans Frontières, 2023 ...
See Details: Europe and African nations must find effective common ground in dealing with migration influx
Springbok lock opts not to renew contract with URC team Rugby World Cup-winning lock RG Snyman has opted not to extend his stay at Munster beyond the current season. This week, it was revealed by Munster that Snyman would seek new horizons once his deal with the Irish Province expires. ...
See Details: Springbok lock opts not to renew contract with URC team
Pravin Gordhan’s deathly legacy: A threat to SA’s economic future In the corridors of power, where decisions shape the destiny of nations, one man has emerged as front runner for the dubious honour of being the architect of South Africa’s economic chaos – Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan, at ...
See Details: Pravin Gordhan’s deathly legacy: A threat to SA’s economic future
Pravin Gordhan’s deathly legacy: A threat to SA’s economic future In the corridors of power, where decisions shape the destiny of nations, one man has emerged as front runner for the dubious honour of being the architect of South Africa’s economic chaos – Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan, at ...
See Details: Antoine Dupont STILL hurt by ‘injustice’ of Rugby World Cup loss to Springboks
Pravin Gordhan’s deathly legacy: A threat to SA’s economic future In the corridors of power, where decisions shape the destiny of nations, one man has emerged as front runner for the dubious honour of being the architect of South Africa’s economic chaos – Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan, at ...
See Details: Rubber stamping NHI Bill will have damaging consequences for SA for generations
Pravin Gordhan’s deathly legacy: A threat to SA’s economic future In the corridors of power, where decisions shape the destiny of nations, one man has emerged as front runner for the dubious honour of being the architect of South Africa’s economic chaos – Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan, at ...
See Details: Inside horrific conditions Hamas hostages suffered including losing 15lbs in 50 days
Pravin Gordhan’s deathly legacy: A threat to SA’s economic future In the corridors of power, where decisions shape the destiny of nations, one man has emerged as front runner for the dubious honour of being the architect of South Africa’s economic chaos – Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan, at ...
See Details: After the Bell: SA’s NHI healthcare disaster starts right here
Pravin Gordhan’s deathly legacy: A threat to SA’s economic future In the corridors of power, where decisions shape the destiny of nations, one man has emerged as front runner for the dubious honour of being the architect of South Africa’s economic chaos – Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan, at ...
See Details: Gupta-linked development land for sale
A senior Volkswagen executive involved in a global cost-cutting strategy said on Friday, 24 November, he was “very worried” about the future of the company’s operations in South Africa, which ... Read more »
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters Liz Truss, the shortest-serving prime minister in British history, who was famously shown to have a shorter shelf life than a lettuce, has effectively backed Donald Trump ... Read more »
Standard Bank treasonous? We're literally helping to keep the lights on says CEO Bruce Whitfield speaks to Lungisa Fuzile, Standard Bank SA CEO. Standard Bank is one of 28 banks ... Read more »
Israel, Hamas agree to extend truce for two days; Musk ‘would like to help rebuild Gaza’ The UN said many people in Gaza still had no food or cooking fuel ... Read more »
Mamelodi Sundowns’ former coach, Pitso Mosimane, dismissed the African Football League Jingles shared his opinion and compared it to the CAF league and said that it was a mere tournament ... Read more »
Take note of these N3 road works between Westville and Paradise Valley The N3 between the Westville viaduct and Paradise Valley interchange will be partially closed to traffic for the ... Read more »
UKZN medical student bags 2023 Health Excellence Rising Star Award Durban — One of the country’s most progressive young minds in the medical field, fifth-year University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) medical ... Read more »