Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why PM Modi's 370-seat dream hinges on these southern states

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why PM Modi’s 370-seat dream hinges on these southern states

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s frequent visits to southern states, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala, ahead of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, are strategic political manoeuvres aimed at making inroads in these states where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has historically struggled. The party hopes to secure seats in these regions as part of its ambitious goal to achieve a significant majority in the Lok Sabha, potentially reaching the target of 370 seats on its own. Tamil Nadu and Kerala collectively hold 59 Lok Sabha seats, and with the addition of Puducherry, the total rises to 60.

Southern Strategy: Expanding Influence

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, out of the total 127 seats across five southern states—Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana—and the Union Territory of Lakshadweep, the BJP managed to secure only 29 seats. Notably, 25 of these seats were won in Karnataka, while the remaining four were from Telangana. However, the party failed to win any seats in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh during that election cycle. The saffron party’s increased focus, therefore, on southern states reflects its determination to expand its presence in these crucial states.

BJP’s Southern Expansion Blueprint

The BJP is leaving no stone unturned to expand its influence across all five southern states, traditionally dominated by the Congress and various regional parties. Despite historical hurdles, the BJP is actively devising strategies and deploying resources to enhance its presence and appeal in these regions. The party’s overarching aim is to fortify its electoral standing and prospects by effectively engaging with the electorate and addressing regional concerns and aspirations.

In the 2019 general elections, the BJP secured 303 seats, marking a significant milestone after consecutive victories in the preceding polls. Its success was particularly notable in the Hindi heartland, northeast, and west India. Now, the party is directing its attention towards making inroads into the southern political landscape.

Tamil Nadu Thrust under Annamalai Leadership

Among these states, Tamil Nadu is receiving particular attention. Tamil Nadu, with its 39 Lok Sabha seats, holds significant electoral importance. Historically, the saffron party has faced challenges in making substantial inroads into Tamil Nadu’s political landscape. However, under the leadership of K Annamalai, who heads the party’s state unit with assertiveness, there is a renewed sense of optimism within the party cadres regarding its prospects in Tamil Nadu.

NDA Eyes Southern Sweep for Electoral Triumph

Political observers argue that that the NDA’s ambition of crossing the “400-paar” mark in the Lok Sabha elections could materialise if the alliance secures 50-60 seats in the five southern states. The News18 Mega Opinion Poll last week projected significant gains for the NDA in the five southern states, indicating a potential win of 58 seats, which is double the tally it achieved in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The forecast includes 18 seats for the NDA in Andhra Pradesh, eight in Telangana, 25 in Karnataka, five in Tamil Nadu, and two in Kerala.

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To bolster its prospects in Andhra Pradesh, where it failed to secure any seats in 2019, the BJP has formed an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena party.

Modi Leads Southern Campaign Surge

The BJP has formulated an extensive campaign strategy for South India, spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has undertaken nearly two dozen visits to the region in recent months. Modi wrapped up his comprehensive tour of South India on march 20, concluding with a roadshow in Kerala followed by a public rally in Tamil Nadu. These visits highlight the party’s focused endeavours to bolster its presence and garner support in the southern states ahead of the impending general elections.

Targets New Frontiers for Electoral Expansion

Analysts say the BJP has identified Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana as priority states for the first time, recognising the significant potential to increase its seat share in these regions. Alongside, the party is also focusing on states like West Bengal in other parts of India where it sees opportunities for growth. This strategic shift underscores the party’s commitment to expanding its political footprint across diverse regions of the country.

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Uphill Battle in Tamil Nadu

In the past, the BJP has faced challenges in making significant progress in Tamil Nadu, despite its emergence as a dominant force in North India. In the 2014 elections, the BJP and its ally PMK secured only one seat each. The state saw a landslide victory for the ruling AIADMK under J Jayalalithaa, winning 37 out of 39 seats. Despite contesting independently on 39 seats, the BJP managed to secure only a 5.5 percent vote share, with state BJP president Pon Radhakrishnan winning from Kanyakumari and PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss from Dharmapuri.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP failed to win any seats, while AIADMK’s Edappadi K. Palaniswami, an ally of the BJP, emerged as the sole opposition leader to win, as the DMK secured a clean sweep. The BJP’s vote share further declined to 3.66 percent.

Annamalai’s Influence Sparks Electoral Speculation

Nonetheless, the recent campaigns launched by Annamalai, alongside his direct confrontations with the incumbent DMK administration, have stirred considerable interest throughout the state. Annamalai’s deep-rooted grassroots connections and his unyielding challenges to the DMK’s dominance have undoubtedly captured public attention. Yet, the key question remains: how will this heightened visibility and fervent activism translate into actual votes and parliamentary seats for the BJP?

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Kerala’s Political Landscape Shifts with BJP’s Emergence

Kerala’s political landscape, traditionally dominated by the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), is currently witnessing a significant shift as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerges as a formidable contender against these established coalitions. This transformation is evident in various Lok Sabha constituencies, where a triangular contest is gaining prominence, departing from the conventional two-party dominance.

Strategic Moves Reshape Kerala’s Political Arena

Strategically, the BJP has fielded candidates such as Union ministers Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Thiruvananthapuram and V Muraleedharan in Attingal, underscoring its intent to challenge the dominance of the LDF and UDF. Furthermore, the BJP has successfully attracted several heavyweight Congress leaders to its ranks, including Padmaja Venugopal, daughter of former chief minister K Karunakaran, and Anil Antony, son of former defence minister and Congress stalwart AK Antony. These defections have not only bolstered the BJP’s position but have also improved its electoral prospects in the state.

BJP-TDP-Jana Sena Alliance’s Andhra Ambitions

In 2019, the BJP faced a tough battle in Andhra Pradesh Lok Sabha elections, contesting 24 out of 25 seats but failing to secure any victories. The TDP emerged victorious in three seats, while the YSRCP swept the polls, winning 22 seats.

However, in the upcoming elections, the BJP has forged a strong alliance with the TDP and Jana Sena Party, for both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections in the state. This alliance aims to provide a formidable opposition to the ruling YSRCP.

Despite the BJP’s low vote share of less than 1 percent in 2019, the alliance partners collectively command a significant share of the vote, with the TDP securing nearly 40 percent and the Jana Sena Party nearly 6 percent. With the elections shaping up as a direct contest between the YSRCP and the BJP-TDP-Jana Sena alliance, the saffron party is optimistic about its prospects and hopes to win several seats in Andhra Pradesh.