American weakness has left us on the brink of a global conflagration

A missile is launched during a military exercise in Isfahan, Iran

Israel is in a posture of war. I’m not just talking about the defence and intelligence community; ordinary people are cancelling their plans, from school trips to family visits, until the shadow of Iran withdraws, preferring instead to stay close to their bomb shelters.

This may be a sign of what is to come for Britain. Such fear has not been felt on these shores for over 80 years, which perhaps is why the Defence Secretary’s warning in January that we were living in a “pre-war world” had little effect on the public. But try gaming out war scenarios and you’ll discover that they are easier to envision than the narrow path to sustained peace.

First, let’s look at the current threat. When Joe Biden paused his criticism of Israel to affirm that his commitment to defending it against Iran was “ironclad”, his rhetoric finally matched the interests of his country. But little and late don’t cover it. The Biden administration’s attitude towards Tehran has long been one of abject appeasement. And when facing interlocking adversaries – China, Russia, Iran – appeasing one emboldens them all.

The West’s main weapon so far has been economic. But as Rich Goldberg, former director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction for the White House’s National Security Council, has noted, the Biden administration has been undermining its own sanctions, releasing $16 billion in frozen funds to Tehran in the lead-up to October 7.

That vast sum included $6 billion (£5 billion) to secure the release of five American captives in September, a historic ransom that could only have acted as encouragement for the taking of further hostages. The deal avoided congressional oversight by being rushed through in the summer recess. Does anyone believe that American efforts to earmark this money for humanitarian purposes will work?

It sounds preposterous, but the State Department has also been turning a blind eye towards sales of Iranian oil to China, enabling Tehran to export over a million barrels daily, and has allowed Iraq to trade oil for Iran’s gas.

These foolhardy efforts started as part of a failed effort to revive Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, from which Donald Trump withdrew in 2018 in favour of “maximum pressure”.

The talks, led by the ultra-dovish Robert Malley were characterised by sheer naivety. So soft were the Americans that it was left to British negotiators to toughen things up, a diplomat involved in the talks told me. In the event, the Iranians simply played for time while accelerating towards a bomb. All the crucial milestones, including achieving enrichment at 20 per cent, then 60 per cent, and so forth, were reached in this period of dithering.

Tehran is now a week away from having enough nuclear material for one bomb. This, according to former UN weapons inspector David Albright, could be weaponised within months.

To achieve this, with the eyes of the world on Gaza, the Ayatollahs have been building an underground facility in Natanz deep enough to evade any Western airstrike. One bomb alone will not destroy the world, but the clock stands at a minute to midnight.

The heart of the problem is that the West has no theory of mind about the Iranian regime. Our diplomatic class projects the principle of enlightened self-interest onto the Ayatollahs, when in truth, despite their sophisticated strategising, they are driven by religious fanaticism.

As anyone educated in regime schools will confirm, they believe that an apocalyptic war will herald the return of a messianic figure called the Mahdi. Along with 313 of his most loyal fighters, he will conquer the world and usher in a new age. The regime’s strategy for the end times involves three components: ballistic missiles, proxy militia and nuclear weapons. Israel is the target.

We are in the crosshairs, too. In 2022, MI5 revealed that Tehran had attempted 10 assassinations on British shores that year, while in 2023 a further 15 were foiled by counter-terror police. Last month, an Iranian dissident journalist was stabbed in west London in a suspected regime attack. A security official told me that Tehran kept him up at night. Yet for reasons known only to the Foreign Office, we have still not blacklisted the Revolutionary Guards.

As the situation in the Middle East unfolds, here’s one possible war scenario. Iran is joined by its proxies in a direct strike on Israel. Houthi rockets block the Red Sea. As America dispatches forces to the eastern Mediterranean, China attacks Taiwan, forcing the White House to divert assets to the Indo-Pacific.

Seeing an opening, Putin attacks Estonia, a Nato state, and fires missiles at London. Possible next steps now include nuclear warheads and North Korea.

Britain finds itself at war. Look at us. Depleted armed forces, a few weeks’ supply of ammunition, Trident missiles that plopped into the sea at the last test, and a £3 billion aircraft carrier with a rusty propeller.

At the Gaza marches, a new chant goes up: “Iran, Iran, make us proud.” We cancel our family plans. We feel safer close to our bomb shelters.

That is why Israel’s security matters. That is why we must re-arm. And that is why we must get tough with Iran.

Jake Wallis Simons is the author of ‘Israelophobia’

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