4 Red Sox on Thin Ice After Disastrous Series Against Orioles

The season is just thirteen games old, but the 2024 Red Sox are developing an identity, and it isn’t a good one.

In a word? The Red Sox are sloppy. They boot routine grounders, misplay fly balls, use players out-of-position, and seem to do all the little things wrong. Sure, the offense isn’t exactly world-beating, but that was always to be expected; the defense playing at this level was not.

Look no further than Thursday’s 9-4 loss to Baltimore. Once again, the finger could be pointed at poor fundamental baseball. With a one-run eighth-inning lead, the Red Sox collapsed. A Pablo Reyes error started the festivities before a David Hamilton flubbed double-play kept the frame alive; one pitch later, Anthony Santander sliced a two-out, two-run homer into the seats beyond the Pesky Pole. The game eventually went to extra innings, where the Orioles exploded for six runs, condemning the Sox to yet another heartbreaking loss.

Out of six losses thus far, four have either been decided by one run or extra innings; a fifth was a 7-5 loss where the Sox gave up seven unanswered runs, committing multiple errors (and a catcher’s interference) in the process. Losing all these nail-biters makes the defensive incompetence even more frustrating. Doing enough to win only to throw it away by making childish mistakes is an unpleasant way to lose ball games.

There are other reasons for Boston’s struggles, though. The injury bug has already bitten the clubhouse, and the lineup has struggled to produce consistently. A highly-rated bullpen has had some rocky outings as well, often failing to hold up their end of the bargain after a quality start.

With that being said, there are a few players who’ve stood out on the struggle bus. A successful baseball season requires contributions from every single name on the 26-man roster, and there are a couple Red Sox who simply haven’t done their part. Here are the four Red Sox who are already in danger of losing their big-league jobs:

1. David Hamilton (SS)

Apr 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop David Hamilton (70) reacts after hitting his first big-league home run | Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t feel particularly good to write negatively about Hamilton. He’s only seen 12 plate appearances, and his offensive numbers are actually decent (albeit with a minuscule sample size), but his defensive struggles are simply too important to ignore.

When you have a pitching staff that thrives off inducing ground balls, having a sure-handed shortstop is imperative for success. Hamilton is… not that. Whether it’s bobbling a routine grounder, failing to step on the bag, or coming up just short on a ball in the hole, Hamilton just doesn’t field the position at a Major League level.

Statcast agrees with the eye test, giving Hamilton a -3 Defensive Runs Saved in just 107 career innings at shortstop. That puts him on pace for around -37 over a full season (around 1300 innings), a catastrophic mark that would easily give the Red Sox the worst defense in the league at the position. A defender of that caliber at one of the most important positions on the diamond is a recipe for disaster.

He’s been solid with the bat in a limited capacity, but history suggests that trend won’t continue. The 26-year old has a decent track record in the minors, but slugged just .182 upon joining the Red Sox last year. He struggles with velocity, strikes out a lot, and doesn’t hit the ball very hard when he does make contact.

His defense would be an easier pill to swallow if he was tearing it up at the plate, but that’s not the case. I’d expect GM Craig Breslow’s patience with Hamilton to be somewhat short (barring a change in fortunes), and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finishes 2024 in Worcester or with a different organization.

2. Enmanuel Valdez (2B)

Apr 6, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Boston Red Sox second base Enmanuel Valdez (47) attempts to throw to first | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

What’s that? Another young, defensively shoddy infielder not doing enough at the plate to make up for his defense?

That’s right. Unlike Hamilton, though, Valdez has real expectations of success at the plate. He was Boston’s 13th-ranked prospect in 2022, and scouts have described him as a “versatile, well-rounded lefty stick.” On top of that, he registered a .764 OPS across 149 plate appearances in 2023, production that gave Red Sox fans and management alike visions of a potential breakout in 2024.

Instead, Valdez’s 2024 has been the opposite of a breakout. It’s only been 12 games, but the 25-year old owns a paltry .108 batting average to pair with a .336 OPS. He did manage to wallop a three-run home run in a win over Seattle, but he’s been completely dormant since, managing just two hits across his last eight games, including a six-game hitless streak. To boot, his much-maligned defense hasn’t seen much in the way of improvement, as he’s already recorded -1 Outs Above Average, per Statcast.

Despite being one of the worst everyday players in baseball thus far, I’d give Valdez a slightly longer leash than someone like Hamilton. His talent hasn’t just disappeared – he’s proven he can hit at the Major League level, and underlying numbers show he’s been getting a bit unlucky at the plate. With that being said, there’s only so long you can keep a .336 OPS in the lineup every day, especially one with a middling defensive profile. If he hasn’t started to turn it around by the end of April, it’s hard to see him sticking on the roster.

3. Pablo Reyes (INF)

Mar 30, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Pablo Reyes (19) hustles out of the box after a base hit | Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

I should preface this by saying that I appreciate all that Pablo Reyes did for the 2023 Red Sox. He filled in admirably at second base whenever he was called upon to do so, and swung the bat well enough to seriously contend for a starting spot going into this year.

Unfortunately, some of his magic appears to have run out. The sixth-year swingman has a meager .310 OPS so far this season, and his defense has been horrific, to the tune of -2 DRS over just eight games. Although his numbers will almost certainly improve, it’s not like a breakout is on the horizon; the 30-year old has a career .668 OPS with just eight home runs, and a career -1 in the DRS department.

The 2024 version of Reyes has zero extra-base hits, a 7:1 K/BB ratio, and two errors. He’s struggling to lift the ball, struggling to drive the ball, and whiffing at a career-high rate. He’s not a natural at shortstop, poor at third base, and not good enough at second to make up for his offensive woes.

The one thing working in Reyes’s favor is the utter lack of middle infield options on the Red Sox roster. Barring an unlikely acquisition, it’s hard for me to see Reyes being tossed aside in favor of Valdez, Hamilton, or Romy Gonzalez; however, with Vaughn Grissom returning soon, the competition should stiffen. You’d be hard-pressed to find a scenario where all four of those guys end the season on the roster, and a continued lack of production could see Reyes’s departure.

4. Isaiah Campbell (RP)

Mar 30, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Isaiah Campbell (44) pitching against his old team | Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe Alex Cora is a mind-reader; as I’m writing this, multiple reports have surfaced that Cora called Isaiah Campbell into his office to inform him of a potential roster move early Friday afternoon.

Campbell isn’t necessarily on “thin ice”, but it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see the second-year man optioned to Worcester for something of a reset following back-to-back catastrophic outings. After getting hammered for three earned runs in the sixth inning on Wednesday, the Orioles touched Campbell for five more on Thursday, pushing what had been a 2.08 ERA to 12.79 in the span of 24 hours.

It’s harder to pinpoint issues with relievers than it is with almost any other position; they’re volatile players by nature, often pitching in tiny sample sizes with vastly different variables on a night-to-night basis.

Nonetheless, Campbell’s implosion is notable. Despite being just a second-year player, he was brought over this offseason to be a key member of the Boston bullpen. He started off looking the part, with six strong outings, before back-to-back blowups sullied his numbers and cost the Red Sox two wins. I won’t pretend to be some pitcher guru, but giving Campbell a week or so in Worcester to get himself right wouldn’t be the worst idea, especially if the Red Sox are counting on him to play an important role going forward.

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This article was originally published on chowderandchampions.com as 4 Red Sox on Thin Ice After Disastrous Series Against Orioles.