Shift from El Nino to La Nina portends rains in Asia, dryness in Americas

FILE PHOTO: State Emergency Service (SES) personnel prepare to deploy as floodwaters submerge residential areas following heavy rains in the Windsor suburb of Sydney, Australia, July 5, 2022. REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo

By Naveen Thukral and Julie Ingwersen

SINGAPORE/CHICAGO (Reuters) – After a strong El Nino, global weather is poised to transition to La Nina in the second half of 2024, a pattern typically bringing higher precipitation to Australia, Southeast Asia and India and drier weather to grain and oilseed producing regions of the Americas, meteorologists and agricultural analysts said.

FILE PHOTO: Farmer Ignacio Bastanchuri, 65, sips mate drink as he walks past by a cow that died from the drought caused by the climate phenomenon La Nina, at a farm in Navarro, in Buenos Aires province, Argentina December 5, 2022. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo

While it is too early predict its intensity or impact on crops, meteorologists said, a shift towards a mild occurrence of La Nina, when surface ocean waters cool off the tropical west coast of South America, is looming.

“The vast majority of weather models are pointing towards a weak La Nina in the second half of the year or towards the last quarter. One out of maybe 25 weather models is showing a strong La Nina,” said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at U.S.-based Maxar.

Last year’s El Nino, which followed three La Nina years, saw hot and dry weather in Asia and heavier rains in parts of the Americas that boosted farm output prospects in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains.

India, the world’s biggest rice supplier, restricted exports of the staple following a poor monsoon, while wheat output in No.2 exporter Australia took a hit. Palm oil plantations and rice farms in Southeast Asia received less than normal rains.

La Nina could reverse the situation.

“Hypothetically, La Nina is obviously very good for Aussie crops, but it really depends on when the rain falls or doesn’t fall,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at agriculture brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney.

“Rain needs to fall prior to planting so there is good subsoil moisture or regularly during the growing season.”

In rice and palm oil-producing Southeast Asian countries, wet weather could boost yields, analysts said, while a normal Indian monsoon would boost production and farm incomes.

“Maybe for southern India there could be a little bit of lingering dryness but for the vast majority of the country – the centre and the north in particular – slightly above normal rains,” Maxar’s Hyde said.

U.S. climatologists predict La Nina’s arrival in late summer or early fall.

“As we get into the growing season, our precipitation across the Corn Belt is primarily thunderstorm-driven,” said Iowa state climatologist Justin Glisan. “If La Nina kicks in late September, early October, that would be beneficial.”

La Nina’s onset in July-September could cause a dry autumn in the Corn Belt, benefiting U.S. farmers by speeding the harvest, although it could also lower water on Midwest rivers, hampering barge movement, and reduce grazing pastures.

“The expectations are in some cases opposite of what you would see in an El Nino,” said Mark Brusberg, chief meteorologist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre will issue its monthly weather outlook for the northern hemisphere on Thursday, and the Japan weather bureau’s El Nino/La Nina forecast is scheduled for Friday.

(Reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Sydney and Seher Dareen in Bangalore; Editing by Tony Munroe and Ros Russell)