Explainer-What are the security deals Ukraine is discussing with allies?

A woman smokes as she walks on the main street Khreshchatyk, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in central Kyiv, Ukraine February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

By Tom Balmforth

KYIV (Reuters) – Wartime Ukraine has been in talks with an expanding group of countries to agree bilateral agreements on security commitments while it strives to reach its strategic goal of NATO membership and presses to secure foreign assistance to fight Russia’s invasion.

WHAT ARE THESE SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS?

The Group of Seven nations signed a joint declaration at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July last year, committing to establish “long-term security commitments and arrangements” with Ukraine that would be negotiated bilaterally.

The deals would commit to the continued provision of military and security aid, support to develop Ukraine’s defence industrial base, training Ukrainian soldiers, intelligence sharing and cooperation, and support for cyber defence.

The sides would also immediately hold consultations with Ukraine to determine “appropriate next steps” in the event of a “future Russian armed attack”.

More than 30 countries have since signed the declaration.

WOULD THIS BE A SUBSTITUTE FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP?

Kyiv says the arrangements should contain important and concrete security commitments, but that the agreements would in no way replace its strategic goal of joining NATO, which regards any attack launched on one of its 31 members as an attack on all under its Article Five provision.

“There has been speculation that by concluding enough of these agreements, we do not need membership. False. We need NATO membership,” said Ihor Zhovkva, the Ukrainian president’s foreign affairs adviser.

WHO HAS SIGNED DEALS SO FAR?

Britain in January became the first country to sign one of the security agreements with Ukraine for a term of 10 years, by which time Kyiv hopes to be inside NATO.

London said the deal formalised a range of support that Britain “has been and will continue to provide for Ukraine’s security, including intelligence sharing, cyber security, medical and military training, and defence industrial cooperation.”

Under the agreement, Britain committed to hold consultations with Kyiv within 24 hours if Ukraine faces a future Russian armed attack, and to provide “swift and sustained” security assistance. London would provide “modern military equipment across all domains as necessary, and economic assistance; impose economic and other costs on Russia,” it said.

Zhovkva said there were also supplements in the British agreement that had not been made public.

“There are also supplements to the agreement, which are top secret. In these supplements, we define the concrete scope, concrete things, concrete spheres. And these, sorry, will not be known to the public or the aggressor, but they will take place.”

WHICH OTHER COUNTRIES ARE SET TO SIGN DEALS?

Ukraine has held at least two rounds of talks on the agreements with all the G7 countries, Zhovkva said. More than 10 countries are in the active stage of talks or potentially starting soon, he added. The additional countries include the Netherlands, Romania, Poland and Denmark.

France and Germany look on course to agree security commitments with Ukraine soon.

President Emmanuel Macron was expected to finalise a bilateral security commitment deal in Ukraine this month, but he postponed the trip for security reasons. The accord would outline the framework for long-term humanitarian and financial aid, support for reconstruction and military assistance.

However, it would stop short of providing specific financial commitments on weapons’ deliveries as Paris would need to return to parliament for approval. Macron would instead make announcements in public and has said France will send a regular supply of air-to-surface missiles and long-range cruise missiles.

WHAT DOES UKRAINE WANT FROM THE DEALS?

Ukraine’s Zhovkva singled out as “very important” the provision in the British deal under which consultations could be held within 24 hours to provide swift and sustained aid.

This, he said, went beyond the “infamous” 1994 Budapest Memorandum under which Ukraine was provided with security “assurances” by Britain, Russia and the United States in return for relinquishing nuclear weapons from its territory.

“We do not want to repeat the infamous experience of the Budapest declaration, which just remained a declaration,” he said.

Zhovkva said there was no need for Ukraine to rush to agree deals. “I don’t need 10 or 15 agreements concluded within one week. Rather I would have this same 10 or 15 agreements deeply thought over, well-negotiated and with concrete signs of long-term and varied support for Ukraine,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Olena Harmash in Kyiv and John Irish in Paris; Editing by Ros Russell)