Deaths from brain bleeds due to stroke to rise by 74.4pc in Ireland, study warns

Deaths from brain bleeds caused by strokes are predicted to increase by 74.4pc in Ireland, and by 8.9pc in Europe, by 2050, according to a new study.

The study published today in Lancet Regional Health – Europe, by researchers from King’s College London, has predicted that the number of cases and deaths from intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) is set to increase across Europe and the UK by the mid-century, marking a significant departure from the downtrend observed in the past three decades.

Stroke has consistently ranked among the top three major causes of death and disability worldwide. ICH, which is a particularly lethal form of stroke marked by a ruptured blood vessel within the skull leading to bleeding in the brain, constitutes a significant proportion of stroke-related deaths (44pc) despite contributing 28pc of all stroke cases.

Researchers from King’s College London estimate a 59.4pc increase in deaths in ages 70 to 95 and older in the UK by 2050. However, the percentage of cases under 50 decreased by 40pc in the UK, and by 65pc in Europe.

The top five countries with the biggest predicted increase in deaths are:

• Ireland 74.4pc
• Cyprus 74.2pc
• Luxembourg 70.7pc
• Netherlands 45pc
• Finland 40.7pc

The UK has the sixth biggest increases in deaths in Europe.

While predications saw a decline in individual risk, results showed that the absolute number of new cases and related deaths is expected to rise on a population level. Authors believe this is because the notable increase in the proportion of older adults who are particularly affected by the condition and contribute significantly to the growing burden.

Lead author Hatem A Wafa, Research Associate and Trial Statistician from King’s College London said: “We developed a sophisticated modelling framework to anticipate the future health burden of intracerebral haemorrhage. By considering multiple scenarios, the study offered a range of potential trajectories between 2019 and 2050. Key factors that contribute to the rise of deaths are high blood pressure, high blood sugar and obesity.”

The study highlights the need for country-specific action plans due to the variations across European nations.

The authors call for ongoing research to monitor epidemiological trends, risk factor prevalence, and disease mechanisms, enabling refined projections and targeted interventions against ICH.

Unlike previous studies, this research not only projected an increase in ICH cases but also offers unique insights into the potential trajectories and implications for healthcare systems.

By unveiling the potential challenges and opportunities the authors hope that this insight can guide policymakers and healthcare professionals in developing strategies to tackle the anticipated surge in ICH cases and related deaths and the evolving landscape of stroke in the coming decades.

Get ahead of the day with the morning headlines at 7.30am and Fionnán Sheahan’s exclusive take on the day’s news every afternoon, with our free daily newsletter.