IATA releases Nov 2023 cargo data

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for November 2023 global air cargo markets indicating the strongest year-on-year growth in roughly two years.

This IATA said is partly due to weakness in November 2022, but also reflects a fourth consecutive month of strengthening demand for air cargo.

Global demand for air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs) within the period, increased by 8.3 percent compared to November 2022 while for international operations, demand growth was 8.1 percent.

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Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), was up 13.7 percent compared to November 2022 (+11.6% for international operations). Most of the capacity growth continues to be attributable to the increase in belly capacity as international passenger markets continue their post-COVID recovery.

Compared to November 2019 (pre-COVID-19), demand is down 2.5 percent while capacity is up 4.1 percent.

According to the IATA data, some indicators to note include: both the manufacturing output and new export order Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs).

While two leading indicators of global air cargo demand continued to hover just below the 50-mark in November with small positive movements indicating a deceleration of the economic slowdown, global cross-border trade recorded growth for the third consecutive month in October, reversing its previous downward trend.

Inflation in major advanced economies continued to soften in November as measured by the corresponding Consumer Price Index (CPI), centering around three percent year-on-year for the United States, Japan, as well as the EU, in November. In the meantime, China exhibited negative annual growth in its CPI for the second time in a row.

Air cargo yields (including surcharges) continued their significant upward trend (+8.9 percent since October). Rising yields are in line with improving air cargo load factors over recent months. This could be tied in part to booming e-commerce deliveries from China to western markets.

“November air cargo demand was up 8.3 percent on 2022—the strongest year-on-year growth in almost two years. That is a doubling of October’s 3.8 percent increase and a fourth month of positive market development. It is shaping up to be an encouraging year-end for air cargo despite the significant economic concerns that were present throughout 2023 and continue on the horizon,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Under the November Regional Performance (total market) data, African airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 3.9 percent in November 2023, slightly improved compared to October’s +2.9 percent growth performance. Capacity was 14.0 percent above November 2022 levels.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 13.8 percent in November 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This performance was significantly above the previous month’s growth of 7.6 percent. Available capacity for the region’s airlines increased by 29.6 percent compared to November 2022 as more belly capacity came online with the removal of COVID-19 restrictions.

North American carriers had the weakest demand growth in November with a 1.8 percent increase (YoY) in cargo volumes. This was, nonetheless, a significant improvement in performance compared to October’s -1.8 percent contraction. Capacity increased by 4.0 percent compared to November 2022.

European carriers saw their air cargo volumes increase by 6.7 percent in November compared to the same month in 2022. This was a stronger performance than in October (1.0%). Capacity increased 6.5 percent in November 2023 compared to 2022.

Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest performance in November 2023, with a 13.5 percent year-on-year increase in cargo volumes. This was similar to the significant improvement noted in the previous month’s performance (+13.0%). Capacity increased 15.4% compared to November 2022.

Latin American carriers experienced a 4.2 percent increase in cargo volumes compared to November 2022, very similar to the 4.0 percent year-on-year increase recorded for October. Capacity in November was up 7.7 percent compared to the same month in 2022.

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