Fears emerge 'paranoid' Xi Jinping could 'provoke war' as he's rumoured to purge loyalists

Xi Jinping

The alleged removal or disappearance of high-ranking officials in China is signalling a tense atmosphere of paranoia and isolation in the country’s upper echelons of power.

President Xi Jinping has been reportedly carrying out ‘Stalin-style purges’ in his country since he took over as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012 and as President of China a few months later.

But during what was labelled an “anti-corruption” campaign, Mr Xi allegedly removed from office people he deemed his enemies.

Most recently, however, China has experienced the disappearance of officials considered Mr Xi’s loyalists, who rose through the political ranks also thanks to his help.

Commenting on the reported disappearances, the Politico news outlet wrote in an analysis: “With such a febrile atmosphere in the celestial capital of Beijing, there are fears that an isolated and paranoid Chairman Xi could miscalculate, provoke armed conflict with one of its weaker neighbors or even launch a full-scale invasion of democratic Taiwan in order to distract from his domestic troubles.”

A People’s Liberation Army’s Navy tugboat sails in the Taiwan Strait

Among the most notable recent disappearances is that of Li Shangfu, who served as Defence Minister between March and October this year.

While he was officially sacked in late October, Mr Li disappeared from public view in August.

Similarly, China’s ex-Foreign Affairs Minister Qin Gang also vanished from the public eye a few months into his mandate, which ended in July.

Two top officials in the Rocket Forces – the military arms controlling nuclear weapons – were also removed in recent months.

In the cases when official explanations for the disappearances of these officials are provided, they usually concern generic “health reasons”.

These disappearances have come during a particularly tense period in the Taiwan Strait, with China ramping up its threats against the territory it deems its own.

And the removal of major officials could have consequences on the global economy and stability.

Ian Chong, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie China think tank, previously told the BBC disruption in communication over foreign and defence policies would be “especially concerning” as “accidents could happen and managing escalation could become more challenging”.

In November, Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity. The Taiwanese Defence Ministry said to have detected within a day nine aircraft crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait – which has been for years the de-facto border between the two territories – as well as Chinese warships carrying out “joint combat readiness patrols”.

This increased Chinese presence in the area came despite Mr Xi and US President Joe Biden holding face-to-face talks in San Francisco in the same month, during which they also discussed Taiwan.