Friday briefing: Labour hand the Tories two painful byelection defeats

Labour’s Gen Kitchen celebrates with her family after being declared winner in the Wellingborough by-election. Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA

Good morning. While you were sleeping, the Conservative party was having another meltdown. As was widely predicted, it lost two previously safe seats to Labour after yesterday’s byelections, with thumping majorities overturned in Wellingborough and Kingswood and an ominous showing from the Tories’ rightwing challengers, Reform UK.

Byelection defeats for governing parties are pretty normal – but it is the scale of the swing away from the Conservatives that makes such bleak reading for Rishi Sunak: in Wellingborough, the biggest such swing since the second world war. You can follow live coverage of the reaction here. For today’s newsletter, with the help of political correspondent Kiran Stacey and on-the-ground reporters Steven Morris and Sammy Gecsoyler, we’ll run through the results and what they mean. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

Economy | Rishi Sunak has been warned against a fresh austerity drive after official figures confirmed Britain’s economy is in recession. With the government scrambling to restore economic credibility, Jeremy Hunt is considering a controversial squeeze on public spending to finance pre-election tax cuts.

Israel-Gaza war | Israeli forces have raided the largest hospital in the Gaza Strip that is still functioning, amid warnings from the UN aid chief that a threatened ground offensive in Rafah could trigger an exodus of refugees fleeing into Egypt.

Security | The White House has confirmed that it is monitoring a new Russian anti-satellite weapon which it said was being developed but not yet deployed, calling it “troubling” but not an immediate threat. An official would not directly confirm or deny reports that the new Russian weapon was nuclear.

Greece | Greece has become the world’s first Christian Orthodox nation to legalise same-sex marriage after the Athens parliament passed the landmark reform amid scenes of both jubilation and fury. In a rare display of parliamentary consensus, the bill was passed by 176 votes to 76.

US news | Donald Trump’s hush-money criminal case in Manhattan involving the adult film star Stormy Daniels and the playboy model Karen McDougal will proceed to trial on 25 March. The trial date means the Manhattan case will be the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go before a jury.

In depth: Terrible news for the Tories – but more to do for Labour

You will have heard a lot this week about Labour’s troubles in Rochdale, where it has stopped campaigning for its candidate Azhar Ali after his comments about Israel and “certain Jewish quarters” in the media. That blighted byelection isn’t until 29 February, so this morning’s results will feel like relief from a rough spell for Keir Starmer.

Are they more than that? “It depends on where you look,” Kiran Stacey told me. “Wellingborough is right up there as a byelection result. But it’s a bit of an anomaly because of the circumstances there [more on that below]. In Kingswood, the swing is plenty for an overall majority, but it’s considerably less than the last three byelections. That tells us there’s a slight softening in Labour’s lead.”

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Wellingborough: Biggest swing from Tories to Labour since 1945

Labour’s Gen Kitchen (above, with her Conservative rival Helen Harrison) needed an 18-point swing to take Wellingborough – and cruised past that target, with a 28.5% swing that is the biggest from the Conservatives to Labour since the second world war. If that was repeated nationally in the general election, the Tories would be left with four seats. (That won’t happen, so digest this statistic strictly as a piece of entertainment.)

On a low turnout, Kitchen got 13,844 votes against 7,408 for Harrison. “It’s a massive result for Labour, considering the week they’ve had,” said Sammy Gecsoyler, who was covering the count. “It does suggest that in seats like this, their chances haven’t been hampered significantly.”

The circumstances of the byelection were especially inauspicious for the Conservatives: the contest was triggered by a recall petition after an independent panel found that longstanding MP Peter Bone had hit and verbally abused a member of his staff, and committed sexual misconduct by exposing his genitals near the other man’s face, which Bone denied.

Remarkably, the local Conservative party branch then selected Harrison – who is Bone’s girlfriend – as its candidate. “Obviously that didn’t help matters,” Sammy Gecsoyler said. “And there was a lack of support from the party nationally. But when you speak to people it does sound like Bone has been coming up on the doorstep less than bread and butter issues.”

Rishi Sunak declined to endorse Harrison last month, and ministers – other than Andrea Leadsom and Tom Pursglove, who have neighbouring constituencies – largely stayed away. (One Tory told Kiran that they declined to campaign in Wellingborough because they couldn’t face defending Harrison’s selection to voters.)

Even at the count, Sammy said, “the Tories were pretty absent – you couldn’t really see them”. Bone didn’t show up himself. The only Tory MP there, Amanda Milling, declined interviews on the fairly flimsy basis that she was a government whip.

If all of that coupled with the dismal national picture added up to a rough night for the Tories, there was more bad news in the shape of 13% of the vote for the Reform UK candidate, Ben Habib – its best result yet and more than half the Tory vote count. “Richard Tice [Reform’s leader] was there to capitalise on it,” Sammy said. “They were very happy. Habib called it a stepping stone for the party.”

In truth, Reform is not likely to reach quite those heights in a general election – Habib is better known than most of its candidates, and the circumstances in Wellingborough were especially helpful. “And it’s important to note they poured a lot of resource into this,” Sammy said. But after some underwhelming byelection results, this one does suggest that something like 10% nationally might be possible – which could be enough to cost the Tories dozens of seats.

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Kingswood: Majority of more than 11,000 overturned

Labour’s Damien Egan (above) required an 11-point national swing to win here – still significant, but comfortably within the range suggested by national polls. He, too, eased past that marker, overturning a majority of 11,000 with a swing of 16.4%.

“If they’d lost it would have been disastrous, so I think the mood was more relief than great joy,” Steven Morris said after leaving the count. “Damian Egan looked absolutely exhausted – I’ve covered quite a few of these, and the winner usually looks a bit fresher.

“He said that people hadn’t really talked about Labour’s troubles on the doorstep this week – that it’s been much more about the NHS, problems getting a dentist, the cost of living crisis.”

The circumstances in Kingswood, in South Gloucestershire, were very different to those in Wellingborough: the byelection was triggered after Chris Skidmore, a leading Conservative voice on the climate crisis, resigned in protest at Rishi Sunak’s bill to allow new oil and gas licences in the North Sea.

His would-be Tory successor, Sam Bromiley, focused his campaign on protection for the green belt – but may not have inspired confidence among local voters by saying that he had no intention of standing again come the general election. (Kingswood is to be dissolved as a seat, with boundary changes making part of it the new seat of Bristol North East.)

There was a Reform candidate here, too – alarmingly for Southampton supporters, the club’s former chairman Rupert Lowe. Even though Bristol is less obviously fertile territory for the Reform message, it still cleared 10%.

“The Tory candidate scuttled off very quickly after losing, which seems to be a bit of a pattern these days,” Steve said. “So Jacob Rees-Mogg was left to give the excuses.” Rees-Mogg pointed out that turnout was very low, and said: “If you’re a Tory and you stay at home, Rishi Sunak will still be prime minister in the morning. I certainly thought this result would be worse.”

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The big picture: “It’s difficult to see what the Tories can do”

Labour have now gained six seats from the Conservatives since the 2019 election – but their satisfaction at the latest results will not turn into jubilation. It’s worth noting that in both seats, a lot of the swing away from the Tories didn’t go to Labour: the story, once again, appears to be total rejection of the government, and only partial enthusiasm for the opposition.

“There has been a host of polls recently showing their lead dropping,” said Kiran. “I spoke to one Labour person who’d been out knocking on doors and said the message overall is, a plague on both your houses.”

If it’s still a solid night for Starmer, he might be a little grateful to Reform. “This shows the Tories can’t ignore them now,” Kiran said. “You have to be careful not to overestimate byelections – fringe parties always do well. But what this shows is that they can get their ground game going. And it’s difficult to see what the Tories can do about them without losing more votes to their left – the Liberal Democrats will be very keen for them to go chasing Reform voters across the country.”

What else we’ve been reading

Bahzad Al-Akhras, a doctor and psychiatrist living with his family in a tent in Rafah, writes a devastasting piece about life there in the shadow of a possible Israeli ground attack. “All we can do – all 1.4 million of us – is wait for the worst.” Archie

When Rachel Reeves was justifying the decision to U-turn on Labour’s £28bn green transition programme she compared the state’s budget to a maxed-out credit card. Yanis Varoufakis makes the case for why that familiar analogy is flawed and damaging. Nimo

The photographer Nikita Teryoshin visited 18 arms fairs in 15 countries for a look at how the global trade in weapons works (pictured). I loved the resulting images, ridiculous and apocalyptic at the same time. Archie

Self-confessed transport dork John Elledge has a great piece about the new names for the different legs of the London Overground, and why some are so disgusted by allegedly “woke” rail routes called Suffragette and Windrush. Archie

The creation of mobile phones rendered landlines obsolete, but gen-Zers have found a great deal of nostalgia in them. Alaina Demopoulos finds out what about the chunky, plastic and corded devices has charmed so many young people. Nimo

Sport

Football | Kylian Mbappé (above) has told Paris Saint-Germain that he will leave the French champions at the end of the season, sparking a potential scramble for his services among Europe’s elite. Mbappé has been a long-term target of Real Madrid but no agreement has yet been reached, leaving the door ajar for Premier League suitors.

Cricket | Despite two early wickets, India reached 398-7 against England a few minutes ago on the second day of the third test. Follow live coverage here.

Formula One | A bullish Christian Horner has insisted that he believes he will remain as team principal of Red Bull Racing, despite the ongoing ­investigation into allegations of inappropriate behaviour against him. Horner’s comments are his first since the opening of an investigation into a female employee’s complaint of his “controlling” behaviour.

The front pages

“PM warned against cuts as UK falls into recession” says the Guardian today. The Daily Mirror says we’re in “Rishession”. “Hunt to shelve 2p income tax cut” – that’s the Daily Telegraph. “UK slips into recession – but squeeze will cut inflation, Hunt believes” is the way the i sees it, while the Financial Times’ take is “Britain’s slide into recession creates another big election hurdle for Sunak”. The Daily Mail offers encouragement: “Now be bold and go for big tax cuts, Mr Hunt”. Deflecting from that news, the Daily Express says “Now just do it! British Gas told to cut prices after record profit” while the Times has “Don’t rush to rewrite staff rights, Labour told”. “Baby boom!” – the Metro reports that “Ultrasound blast treatment makes dud sperm swim” in a “male fertility breakthrough”.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

Film

Interview With the Vampire

Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt bring the staying power in Neil Jordan’s entirely outrageous horror-comedy bromance, produced by Stephen Woolley and adapted for the screen by Anne Rice from her own bestseller, now rereleased for its 30-year anniversary. The histrionic energy and ambition, operatic pathos and dapper, jaunty offensiveness are undimmed. Peter Bradshaw

Music

Idles: Tangk

It really shouldn’t be a surprise that a band who proved themselves good at one thing turn out to be good at other things as well. But Tangk does feel like a surprising album, which perhaps says something about the way one’s expectations have been narrowed in a music world increasingly dominated by tightly curated stay-in-your-lane playlists and algorithms programmed to second-guess your tastes by serving you up more of the same. Or perhaps it says something about underestimating Idles themselves, who in fairness, always seemed as likely to collapse under the weight of the contradictions at their centre as to develop; making muscular, aggressive music about “impotent male rage”, as Talbot put it, is a tough balancing act, liable to tip over, open to misinterpretation. Alexis Petridis

TVThe Vince Staples Show (Netflix)Staples’s latest project embraces the weird, with this self-titled, surreal comedy – in which his protagonist navigates the dream-logic of a disquieting reality. He plays a fictionalised version of himself, a successful performer with a natural swagger whose world is filled with twisted, David Lynch-like humour. Leila Latif

Podcast

Here Comes the Guillotine

Widely available, episodes weekly“Themes are for cowards,” say the outspoken hosts of this new free form chat series between three Glaswegian comedy pals – Frankie Boyle, Susie McCabe and Christopher MacArthur-Boyd. It’s a no-holds-barred ramble through topics such as the ethics of having sex with Tories, whether Billy Connolly would have been radicalised if he’d grown up in the internet era, and if Boyle’s date with a “neo-Nazi” is likely to lead to romance. Alexi Duggins

Today in Focus

Why is it becoming so hard to retire in the UK?

Everyone agrees the state pension system needs reforming – so why is changing it so hard?

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

During carnival season, bate-bola crews, or ball-slammers, come out in droves in working-class enclaves in Rio de Janeiro. The bate-bolas are masked figures dancing and parading around to funk music in carefully adorned clown-like costumes, clutching sticks that have rubber balls hanging on the end.

“It’s our escape valve … When you slam the ball, you let out this cry, you release this energy, you let everything out,” said Bruno Nicolau Agnelo, who 20 years ago founded a bate-bola group. Though media depictions have often focused on rivalries and fights, it is a cultural tradition whose roots date back to medieval Celtic rituals in Portugal and has evolved to be a much-loved practice in Brazil. The celebration creates an electrified atmosphere in these neighbourhoods, bringing together the local community. “It’s surreal, a thrill that’s out of the ordinary,” said Lucas Silva, 25, of the moment a bate-bola bounds on to the street. “Only those who experience it know.”

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Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.