Grand National 2024 tips: How to the pick the winner and the best ante-post bet

Corach Rambler (centre) won last year’s Grand National – can you find this year’s winner? – AP Photo/Jon Super

The 2024 Grand National is fast approaching and for many that means it is time to start the process of finding the winner.

The winning horse will still have to stay but it can be no coincidence that two novice chasers, therefore potentially unexposed to the handicapper, have won recently. Rule The World had never won a chase while Noble Yeats had been campaigned, for the most part, over distances we now know were way too short for him.

Last year’s winner Corach Rambler entered the race incredibly well handicapped at 10st 5lbs. After the weights for the race were revealed last February, the horse went on to cruise to victory in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival, meaning his rating had jumped by another 10lb by the time the tapes went up at Aintree.

In truth, picking a Grand National winner does require as much good fortune as it does good research but even with that in mind, Telegraph Sport will do its utmost to find you a winner in April.

When are the weights announced and what do they mean?

Following the publishing of the entries for the Grand National, the weights will be revealed on February 20.

The Grand National is a handicap, meaning the horses will carry different weights depending on ability. The top-rated runner in the race will carry a weight of 11st 12lb, with the lowest-rated carrying 10st 2lb.

Unlike normal handicaps which are completely tied to official ratings, the Grand National is assessed as a standalone contest by the BHA handicappers. They have the job of merging the ratings of British and Irish challengers into one field. Official ratings do of course carry huge weight in these deliberations but factors such as course form and previous Grand National performance also come into this assessment.

The weights for this year’s race will be announced on February 20 and will be fixed until the race is run. This means rises or falls in a horse’s official rating will have no impact upon the weight they carry in the Grand National – something that Corach Rambler took advantage of to last year’s race.

Telegraph Sport ante-post tip

Without having the weights for this year’s race to hand, providing a proper case for a selection is tough. Picture having one hand tied behind your back in a fight.

However, what we can do is assess the horses that have the right kind of profile for the race at this stage and then take into account prices.

Using that framework, at this stage I Am Maximus should be of interest at around 25/1. Last year’s Irish Grand National winner does have an Irish rating of 158, meaning he would be towards the top of the weights on that metric, but he might well be graded slightly lower than other entrants based on the absence of any Aintree form.

Willie Mullins is responsible for 13 entrees for this year’s Grand National – PA Wire/Niall Carson

He won a fairly weak Grade 1 novice chase earlier this season, after retaining that status from the previous campaign, but has since struggled when pitched into deep water against the very best staying chasers in Ireland.

Long-distance handicaps appear to be very much his game and after a powerful staying display to win at Fairyhouse last April, there can be little doubt about his ability to stay the extreme trip of 4m2½f at Aintree.

Hailing from the powerful stable of Willie Mullins, I Am Maximus looks to have had his season planned around a tilt at Aintree and you could be a lot worse than having a small wager on him for the race at this early stage.

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