Philly’s snow didn’t quite measure up, and areas to the north got clocked. Here’s what happened to the forecasts

Kevin Fleming, 43, of Fairmount, pushes his son Ronan Fleming, 5, on a sled during this snow morning in Philadelphia, on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.

Maybe those computers are only human after all.

For the second time this week, much of Philly and areas to the south and east of the city ended up with less snow than forecast, and some areas to the north got a surprise clocking.

The National Weather Service had placed the entire region under a winter storm warning on Friday afternoon for 4 to 6 inches of snow, with the immediate Philly area in a bull’s-eye zone for the heftiest amounts. Lesser amounts were expected to the north.

A person out getting some fresh air on a snowy Saturday morning on the Schuylkill River trail.

Computer models are prone to charge their minds when snow is coming

The forecast wasn’t a complete bust, but the amounts didn’t quite measure up to the warning criteria around Philly. Totals finished generally in the 3- to 4-inch range in the immediate Philly area, with a little less in parts of Chester and Montgomery Counties, said Alex Staarmann, meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly.

Jeki Ma, of Philadelphia, out on a walk with his dog, Ten Ten, 5, near their home along Columbus Boulevard on Saturday.

Officially 2.3 inches landed at Philadelphia International Airport.

What went awry with the snow forecast?

Computer guidance Friday afternoon suggested bands of heavy snow would be setting up early Saturday over the Philadelphia region as a storm passed to the south and strong upper-level winds cross the area.

As it turned out, it was a single band, and it formed about 50 miles north of the region, just south of I-78, said Staarmann.

Areas up that way were getting snowfall rates of 2 inches an hour, and some places, 5 inches an hour, said Paul Dorian, a Valley Forge-based meteorologist with the Arcfield weather company.

The Poconos have struck it rich this week with snow

Parts of the Lehigh Valley and central and northern New Jersey received over a foot of snow.

As so often happens when bands form, areas on either side of the heaviest snow are moisture deprived.

“That band obviously was very strong,” Staarmann said, “and that kind of wrung everything out.”

What’s next

Some leftover flurries are possible today as temperatures hold in the 30s. With a snow cover and light winds, lows are expected to drop toward 20 by early Sunday, then back up to 40 in the afternoon.

The February sun is likely to make quick work of the snow this weekend, and then a warming trend should begin with readings into the 50s by the end of the workweek.

The next shot of precipitation would be Thursday night, forecasters say, and that would be rain.

©2024 The Philadelphia Inquirer. Visit inquirer.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.