Wells Fargo Securities is officially out with its 2024 stock market forecast.
Chris Harvey, the firm's head of equity strategy, sees a volatile path to his S&P 500 to 4,625 year-end target.
“It's really hard to get excited. If we have better [economic] growth, then the Fed doesn't do anything,” he told CNBC's “Fast Money” on Monday. “If we have worse growth, then numbers are going to come down and then the Fed will eventually cut. The second half will be better, but the first half is going to be really, really sloppy.”
Harvey's target is just 75 points above Monday's S&P 500's close.
“Can we go higher from here? Sure, we can go a little bit higher. But I just don't think you can go a ton higher,” he said. “People have talked about 5,000. I don't see how you get to that level.”
In his official 2024 outlook note, Harvey told clients to brace for a “trader's market” instead of a “buy-and-hold situation.” His early year strategy: Start with a risk-averse stance.
“The VIX [CBOE Volatility Index] is up 13. Every time we've gone into a new year with the VIX at 13, we've seen spikes. We've seen the equity market pull back, and it's just not a great setup into 2024,” Harvey added.
He warns the higher cost of capital is an additional market problem because it prevents multiples from going higher.
“As long as the cost of capital stays higher, it's really hard for me to get to a much higher price target,” Harvey said.
Yet, he still sees opportunities for investors.
“What we want to do is we want to go to the places that are oversold. We just upgraded utilities today. We upgraded health care,” Harvey noted. “Those are areas that have good valuations, decent fundamentals and most people really aren't there at this point.”
'I hate to say that as being head of equity strategy'
Harvey also sees Treasurys as an option.
“If you look at the alternatives, there are things that are pretty attractive. And, I hate to say that as being head of equity strategy, but you can park money at the front of the curve and make a pretty good rate of return and not put on a whole lot of risk,” said Harvey.
His 2023 S&P target is 4,420 — which implies a three percent drop from Monday's close.
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