Lok Sabha polls: Will NDA cross 400 seats? Pollsters debate

Ladies and gentlemen, in two weeks from now, we will have some idea of who is going to form the next company in the country. All eyes therefore will be on pollsters starting with the exit poll on the 1st of June to give you a teaser as to what to expect on the 4th of June and possibly beyond that, I'm joined by two very special guests. Please welcome ace pollster Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India. Join us on the stage please, Pradeep and Sanjay Gupta of Lokdithi CSTS. Pradeep Gupta. Please join us, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to what we hope will be a teaser to what lies ahead in the next fortnight, an exit poll on the 1st of June and then the results on the 4th of June in the world's largest democracy. And there's plenty of excitement, particularly here in Mumbai where the markets will certainly be looking very closely at what happens on the 4th of June, as indeed will the rest of the country. So Rahul and I are very proud and privileged to welcome two very special individuals who know a thing or two about numbers. Please welcome Sanjay Kumar of Loknithi CSTS. They are a premier political research agency, have been doing elections for more than a couple of decades and my friend Pradeep Gupta of Axis, My India, a pollster who has a track record of usually getting it right and therefore his every word will be looked at very closely in the next couple of weeks. Thank you both very much Pradeep and Sanjay for joining us. I am going to start Rahul by putting to both of them 4 scenarios and you tell me which is most likely and these likely. You don't have to give me numbers because I know that's against the ECS rules. Suppose I want to tell you BJP crossing with its allies 400, BJP with its allies 370, BJP with its allies 300, BJP with its allies 272 and the BJP itself at 2525272300. Three 7400, which is the most likely? Which is the least likely scenario on the 4th of June? Who wants to start? No, I think in my opinion, the scenario is very clear in my mind. Its BJP along with the allies. It is close to 300. It can't. I don't see BJP with allies anywhere. close to 370 or 400 is a remote possibility. But BJP with itself, BJP on its own will. Will BJP on its own be over 272? But that's not the question which you asked. You asked, you gave me these four scenarios. I picked up the one. OK, so the one you picked up IS300 in that 300. Is the BJP over 272 or below 272? I would say BJP over 272 but not by a very large margin. Its just slightly above 272. OK, Pradeep Gupta, So Rajdeep, with due respect to you, I have three scenario too. One is that for me the food is half cooked at this point of time for us. Second, we are as a polling agency we are restricted to say or believe or reveal or release any kind of number whatsoever. And the third one is the most important one. More than often you have been proven pollster like us wrong, meaning you have a better understanding of political scenario in India than As for sure I'm coming to that and most importantly at this point of time you have traveled across the country. So let me try and do exit poll from you now. I can't do it. I'm not allowed. I can't throw a number. You're suppose you're paid for this year if if if India Today tells me Rajdeep we are paying you today if you get the number right you're getting an extra bonus. I'll throw a number if I need a Kali Puri is that No, no, no. We are in Mumbai. So you know in Mumbai some of us can call the shots. So were saying if we get it right, bonus, if we don't get it right, business as usual. No. But but OK, let me, Rahul, just throw another set of numbers and then Pradeep is playing extremely safe. So the other angle is the Congress, the four scenarios, the Congress gets 100 seats, plus the Congress gets 75 seats, plus the Congress is around 50. The Congress is below 50, which is the most likely scenario. Sanjay Kumar. So now Pradeep first. No, no, as I mentioned that you know its not fair or rather legitimate on my part to say or agree to any kind of number you are throwing on to me, is it more competitive than 2019? It is any election for that matter, always very competitive, very exciting. And the reason I will say and now the five, now you will say Pradeep, AAP, GOL, Gol, Gumareo, Rahul will say that more competitive. You know, let's be serious, forget numbers for a moment. Yeah, it is more competitive. It is much more competitive than 2019. And forget the 19, it is more competitive, OK, because 19 has some numbers. So I don't want to get anywhere near to closer to any number. You won't get a call from the Prime Ministers office. Don't worry, it doesn't matter if I say he's winning, what's the problem? So I'm not worried about any kind of call. I have to strict to my business and profession. And my profession doesn't allow to serve half cooked food. You will not like it and I'll tell you why. I'll tell you why. In Chhattisgarh you only told me. Pradeep, you got wrong very badly. I said yes and everybody got wrong. Chhattisgarh very badly. Despite of that there was a 46 number for BJP I have shown and 50 number of seats for Congress. I have shown meaning 46 for BJP, meaning there is also Congress 40 numbers. There was a one scenario, meaning we have shown that BJP may form the government. You you had alternate scenarios. You said just the four seats here and there and everybody said Pradeep, you are wrong, that's a state assembly election. But Sanjay, Sanjay, you want to give me the Congress, the most likely scenario? No. I would go back to the second question which you asked that do I see this election more competitive compared to 2019, both with regard to BJP, both with regard to Congress? I think yes it is definitely a more competitive election and since I have expressed my view about what is the scenario for likely scenario for NDA as as I see now in all probability Congress is improving its tally compared to what Congress tally was in 2019. Where does it stop? Do I see Congress getting figures in three digit? No, I don't see that happening. So as I said real numbers very difficult to figure out. But yes, my own sense is that Congress is on upward slide and BJP slightly on the decline. Sanjay is being far more candid than Pradeep. Is Gupta music chalta or dance? He only wants to dance. He's been practicing his dance moves. But since Rajdeep spoke so much of money being spent and pole being conducted, so much money has been spent on Rajdeep travelling as well. So Rajdeep, aapki ghar ke paas me audience, they all your friends and well wishers. I am telling you from bottom of my heart, he has been right most of the time since I got associated with him. I'm telling you in 2016, in 2016, that was the first time when we got associated with India Today Group and five state was there Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, he told me. Pradeep, I have a doubt on your one number. Your four states seems to be bang on and that is Tamil Nadu. You want to revise it? I said Rajdeep, we have tried enough. Let's go with this. He said no, it can be reversed and which was the case. He is giving me a post retirement option. But Rahul, to answer your question, there are three things that I think are. I think this is the election which will be decided by the women voter. There is no vote bank in this country today as important as the women voter. And the problem is when television anchors or newscasts, they interview more men than women because the men come forward, the women are in the background. If you meet the silent woman, you get to know what's happening in an election. I remember last year in Karnataka, there was this woman sitting at the side of the temple quietly and I just went up to her and then, you know, it was in Kannada. But eventually I got, she said price of kerosene too high. And I will not vote for this government. I want this government out. And you sensed in that woman exactly because she didn't come to the camera, The men come to the camera, the women, you have to go and talk to them. So I think the woman voter will decide, particularly in north and central India. And I think Rahul, somewhere this time the young voter is I havent seen so many young voters in rural India talk the narratives they are, they are watching social media and reels night and day and they have very, very strong opinions. So I think these two the what I call the new MY Mahila and Yuva. Previously Mahila MY was Muslim Yadav now in Northern India, its Mahila and Yuva and they are deciding much more than people sitting in halls like this who will attend our shows but won't go and vote. But when you when I look at Mumbai voting, I mean there are 50% in South Mumbai. Its terrible. I mean you think about it also, but but the bigger picture, Raul, I think people here voting, oh, that's more than 50%, but they also come to an election conclave, right. So obviously the others are sitting on some pub and having a nice evening. So there's also a difference with that. Yes, but, but Rahul, I think what is what is happening is look, the one common factor from north to southeast to West is Prime Minister Modi. I mean this election is do you want Mr. Modi to be in power for another five years or you don't want him? I think he is a unifying factor in that sense. But I am seeing state by state narratives, Rahul, which is suggests its a normal election. You come to Maharashtra, you hear a water scarcity science. Oshi and I went 50 kilometers away from Pune. Women are walking five kilometers for a bucket of water. That's the reality of this country. You go to UP paper leaks. Every student will come and say yeh kaisi Sarkar hai, Jo paper leaks karvati hai or paper leaks can't be stopped. You go to some other corner of the country in Tamil Nadu, The issues are again very different, Rahul. So I think issues are changing from region to region, rural, urban. I'm playing as safe as Pradeep as you can see. But the one statistic, Rahul, that I point out too, one is the BJP won Rahul 224 seats by 50% vote share and more. You're going to need a huge swing away from the BJP for the BJP to be defeated in this election. So I mean, I can't see a scenario at the moment where the BJP doesn't form a government whether its in coalition or whether its past 272 and #2 Rahul. In the last two elections in direct fights between Congress and BJP, 90% of the seats have been won by the BJP. So unless the opposition has offered a better alternative, I'm not so sure that the opposition is in a position at the moment to win India. They may win parts of India but I don't think they can at the moment win nationally in every state on in the key states. I think there are two key states at the moment, Maharashtra where we are now and Uttar Pradesh. These two states something is churning in Uttar Pradesh. I havent seen Uttar Pradesh in a long time, churning in the manner it is. Will it be enough only to change vote share or could it change seed share and Maharashtra? I am delighted to see Maharashtra as competitive as as it is. Its good that this has become the state where finally people are talking politics. So that's I've played very safe. My own senses will be finished on. This result will be over by 12 noon on 4th. Whichever way we won't have to wait too long. It will be over by three hours for that on 1st June on the same very platform India Today Group television channels and other media houses you will get to see access my II today numbers and I'm sure we will try and get result before result. Gupta Ji can teach marketing to Shah Rukh Khan at this time. So I'm not playing safe but but mujhe pabandhi like IOA Ecin, so I cannot deviate from that. You know what we want to do is make this session as interactive as possible. So feel free to jump in and ask questions and start with Sahil Joshi Sahil go on. So first of all I want to talk about I mean everyone talks about Women Voters and jabbi Women Voters Ki baat Ki jatiya tab woke. Thank you Bhai Lavarti yojna unko diya its give and take Aapnevo lavarti yojna diya skele unka vote mill Rai doosri taraf AAP ke exit poll. May ye hamesha diktay Ki unemployment bhat para ishwa AAP you want to say baat karte to bolte Ki unemployment Ki samasya hamare passe to I see konsi mahela hogi Ki jisko apne pache ko nafri nahi Yoga das salsa AAP eki scheme mahapar chala reho kya ushko lekar kahinak koibi scheme Agar extend ho jatiye to uske baad uski naveen tha hai khata mojati AAP kuch naya ushma Lana partai kya ustari ke southeast is Women Voters. Koni dekha jaa sakta Ki das al SE kyon bhatkar re saila pusko samaj lije ya ha me ko jaan lije Pele India kya hai 70% rural 30% urban urban meaning 6500 cities and towns. 6500 Cities and towns contribute 30% of the population. Dusre side PE rural E tojo 100 vote caste hote 67% caste Toa uska 80% is rural and poor and their livelihood largely depend on government of the day. Please understand this and their living is $100 less than $100 a month meaning what they have to depend on government aid And these government aids are starting with Rd. electricity, water, education, health, PDS ration and form related Suvidha and this Kapiya Vivastha Kete be it seeds, fertilizer, subsidized rate and water and electricity for irrigation. So this is the reality and coming to the women country care under 50%. Fifty, fifty women and men 90% of the women in this country is depend on the male member of the family so-called CWE. So they are largely depend on the CWE and where you are living in a kind of underprivileged situation. So whoever comes and try and give you some kind of a comfort or the leeway, they are bound to skew towards whoever is there and the helm of it as a government. So these days these women think government is their CWE, government is their CWE. So that is the precisely and this is the only demography which contribute 50% of the total chunk which is the biggest number now coming to the youth. Now what had happened because of demographic shift in last particularly 10 years earlier in the age of 18 to 25 years of age, there used to be contribution of 17 percent, 17 generally 15% to 20% population. Of that, electors used to be 17% average. I am talking about Now because of demographic shift, this 17 has become 22 1/2 which is a substantial number #1 #2 by nature. As a youth you want things on a rapid fastest speed and that is the precisely reason why they seems to be more vocal, more impatient and what you see and what you heard as Rajdeep pointed out their voices whereas women voices is in silos. So coming to your unemployment and all those things, I'll tell you last 50 years there were unemployment and inflation issue and it will be for next 50 years. The question is who is better prepared to address these issues and that is how elect us elect the government or the leader for that matter. So Pradeep can't speak much at this moment about the exit poll numbers, but I know he has very strong opinions on the issue of Hindutva because there are many in the BJPRSS who think this government wins because they have a very strong Hindutva tility. Your view is that no Hindutva is a very marginal factor. Its actually the work that they do on development which helps them win. Explain that to everyone who's sitting here. Same thing Rahul, any issue for that matter be it Hindutva also Jo sabke jeevan ko a larger section of society. Ko impact kareya prabhavit kareya uska utnai impact hoga. It is as simple as that. So I just now I explained the 80% is literally struggling for livelihood where it matter Hindutva and this it matters only to the extent of five to 10% of the people. But how it turns and what it turns out to be in the campaign, what media picks out, the reality is in the 40 minutes speech of any leader for that matter whether Congress, BJP or any other political party, they talk 90% which is about 3035 minutes about the welfare and development of the society. And five to 10 minutes they talk about these emotional issues so-called because unko, usko, Vito connect karnayana. So it is simply the packaging and marketing. And in packaging and marketing you need to use all kind of trick to reach out to the all kind of voters. But that is the reason why I would say 5 to 10%. And when you say Hindu, Hindu, my dear friend, if you buy a pen and if it is not writing, you will throw it out or replace it. So as with the government, who is leader, who is government is a public representative. If they do not serve them, what are they for? Its as simple as that. But you know, media cannot talk about those issues. Media needs something more than that, which is called info infotainment and that is what you serve. I'm going to come to to doctor Sanjay Kumar because he's in a rather candid mood. You know, you all did a poll at the start of the election or before the election. CSTS. I saw your you didn't give numbers but what you said was effectively suggesting that issues like unemployment, Bhangai, what top of the mind. At the same time, you said there was a strong unemployment and unemployment Birozgari and Mangai. But at the same time you said there was a lot of faith in Mr. Modi as a leader. When you looked at leadership across parties, do you believe that something has changed from the time you started this election where you seem very confident that the BJP was going to get 300 plus Effectively? That's what your survey seemed to suggest. Today you've come and said 272, with allies, 300. That's the question many people are asking. Has something changed in the last 6 to 8 weeks for you, Sanjay Kumar, to be a little bit more cautious? You know, on the question of that, you gave me four options and I picked up one which I thought is much closer. But on a serious note, yes we did CSDS did a poll before elections. As you know that we don't come out with number of seats. But this was a poll conducted in the first week of April. We concluded the poll by 8th of April and our estimate which was made public in the newspaper was that 40% votes for BJP and Prime Minister MODIS popularity remains very high at 47%. But at the same time that study also revealed and it was like like reported in widely in the newspaper, that we figured out that there are sections of voter who intended that they are likely to vote for BJP in the coming election. But we call them reluctant voters. They were not very happy with the performance of the government. They will. They didn't want this government to be reelected by conviction. But they thought since there is no alternative, they will get reelected. So Kya Karen, even if there is Berojgari, even if there is Mehghai, we will end up voting for BJP even though we don't want this government to be reelected. So out of this 40, we made an estimate that really the BJPS vote share seems to be 3536% but there is 4 or 5% reluctant voter who might end up voting for BJP because they see no alternative. That was the situation in the first week of April. But I think as the election progressed, things may have changed on the ground, which is obvious from various quarters and my own sense is that I think there is a movement of those reluctant voter who thought they're likely to vote for BJP on the Election Day. This seems to have moved away because the started have changed which is obvious to everyone. But for those to whom its not so obvious, explain what's changed and why between your earlier polls and now. I think the narrative changed to be very frank. When opposition party used to say this is a election to save democracy, this is an election to save constitution. I used to laugh and I used to think this is not an issue for the common man. But what has happened? I think what BJP thought is an strength became a weakness because that was used by the opposition or that has been used by the opposition as a tool to counter. So when BJP when Prime Minister Modi said char so par NDA Kelly and teen. So sattar for BJP and Congress and opposition started campaigning on this issue that you know BJP is aiming to get 370 because they want to change the Constitution and that is why we are saving. We are saying this is an election to save the Constitution and they kept hammering hard that if they get 370, if they get a huge majority, they may be willing to change the Constitution. And changing the Constitution would mean erasing the memories of Ambedkar because he is seen as an icon for a large number of Dalits. So one big achievement of a Dalit leader, tall Dalit leader Ambedkar who has you know like who, who is the architect of the Constitution, that will also get changed. So this whole narrative that if BJP comes to power in a big way, many things will change and this also connects to Prime Minister. Modi has mentioned we will take strong step or we are going to initiate very strong measures as soon as we come to power in the 1st 10 days, 1st 100 days. I think that started making a connect to the people on the ground and then I think that started changing the narrative. So the big narrative of vote on Modi or vote on Hindutva, vote on temple that disappeared and the small issues of yes, there is some substance. People started thinking there is a substance, that there is a danger to the constitution. There is a substance, that there is a danger to democracy. This started growing up like small plants here and there and the aggregation is what we are get looking at. Now you know Rahul, you've asked me. You've asked them what's happening. What are you going to tell us? You've also traveled across the country. You can't pin me down to a number and you can't. You are, you are you know you met the Prime Minister. You interviewed him. Does he sound like a Prime Minister who's getting 400 par or is that all part of this calculated choreography to create the personality cult? Do you think he's he at all fears? Any possibility of not achieving Radhi Rajit Radhi, why don't you give him the same four options which you gave it to me? OK now four options. BJP plus ally is 400. BJP plus ally is 373 hundred 270-2255 options. What's most likely Rajdeep. Rajdeep like an IPL player likes to hit big and smash out of the park and he gets great pleasure giving his you know, cricketing background. I stick to date and I'm very, very careful. I'd much rather leave a ball outside the ofstand than going to poke my bat at it and get caught out. It slips. But that being said, I think this char so par is something if you talk to any BJP leader, even they will accept is just a war cry. They also accept that some of this in some constituencies did backfire because there was built up anti incumbency against local MPs. So some voters anecdotally started saying things like, you know, we like the Prime Minister, he's done good work, We don't mind him being back in power, but he's a local MP. Is that Dasal, Me Bala Parashankya Isko Modiji, Kathai rancher. So Isko harade. Very quickly, the BJP realized if a lot of people start thinking like this that you know well, beat the local candidate because we don't like him, even though we like the Prime Minister, which is why it led to a change in positioning. The fact also is that there is unemployment, that there is distress and those are genuine factors. It can't, nobody can go away from them. But many of these people actually feel that Prime Minister Modi is probably the best agent to improve their life into the future. Unless there is a vehicle that can capitalize on the anti incumbency, which only legitimately is built up over 10 years, you can't have a government 10 years on. Remember 10 years of Manmohan Singh being in power? People didn't want to see his face, they didn't want the UPA back. The fact that he's still batting on a tricky wicket but still batting and standing strong says a lot for the man. You saw what Fareed Indian Brahma said in a global context, very difficult to find leaders who ten years on are still standing firm. Obviously the ground is more shaky than it was five years ago when you had Pulwama and Balakot. But he's still standing strong and still standing firm. And till the time the opposition finds some way of being able to channelize the anti incumbency, does that simmering of discontent lead to regime change? I think that's really the question, Rajdeep. No, I I agree because I think you see discontent but you didn't see anger. As you travel, you see anger in pockets. But I didn't see the kind of widespread anger we saw in 2014 when you want to get a government out of power. 20/19 was in a way a Shraddhanjali to our martyrs. You know, people went out and said maybe we want to the pulwama martyrs have to be in some way almost given a tribute and we've got to go and vote. And there was this muscular nationalism in 2024. Its almost reassuringly back to an old style Indian election where you can go to western Maharashtra and you said you know, you sense the issues are very different from what they will be in a Vidarbha to a Marathwada. That's what India is. I think the good news is journalists, especially in studios, have got reality check in this election. You see, because we get carried away by a single narrative. The truth is this is the most diverse. I think this is the four times since you've started, you've hit out at journalists in the media. Which of our journalists has been in the studio? No, no, all of them are out of the ground. No, no. I'm saying in general you see when when when we talk about elections, we fail to an Indian election is. So let me rephrase what you said. Journalists in studios of other channels who talk all the time without making any sense, they are the you. You say this in such a general sweeping brush, I get married. Who's he talking about? No, no, I'm just saying that you know what? What is exciting about an Indian election is a sheer diversity and its great that when you can go on the ground as we can and actually experience that diversity. And I think that's what makes Indian election so fascinating. But we want simple. Today's world wants everything in a Instagram reel that tell me in an Instagram reel who's winning? How do you, how do you decode 543 seats in an Instagram reel? How do any of us tell you a number? We havent traveled to 543 seats if you don't travel to every. And that's why Pradeep tends to get it right. Since he complimented me, let me compliment him. That because the new way of doing polling is very different from old. The old was random sampling. You went to a few constituencies and you made predictions for the whole area. Now you can't do that. Every constituency is different from the other. We went recently in eastern UP to Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Varanasi. Varanasi, the Prime Minister is going to win by a landslide. You go to Jaunpur and its a classic old style Indian constituency, all kinds of conspiracies. The candidate there is a Mumbai Congress chief who's now joined the BJP. So the locals are not very happy. Who's this outsider? You're seeing India at play. This is the fascinating Indias, not America. Biden versus Trump. This is the most fascinating, complex country in the world and we should celebrate it. You know, we get caught and a democracy is dead. Indian democracy is not dead. Indian democracy is alive and kicking. It may be dead at times because of no level playing field resources, institutions in trouble, but the voter in his own way, knows how to Inco Ekdin, Ekna Ekdin, arrogant leader Pomas Sabak, Sikhauga. He finds his own way to do it. How he does it is complicated, but he does it. Rahul Somewhere down the line, I think we need to celebrate that diversity. And because Pradeep goes to all 543 constituencies, he has a better chance of getting it right than most. So I my only thing to Pradeep and I remember telling him this in West Bengal 2 years ago or three years ago and before that once in Karnataka, please go and poll more women. I believe political parties get their calculations wrong because they don't go and poll in a women. Pollsters get it wrong because they don't poll women. The women are terrific. They don't. They have agency now. They don't go according to their husbands. In fact, one lady told me Tennakaru, they are me if they vote Karnare. And I wish political parties spent more time understanding the mind of the Indian woman if they had. That's right. I agree, Kali, you're welcome to come. You know, I all the, I'm sure all the women here have far sharper political minds than the men. Because you know what the real livelihood issues are? Men are into this cultural politics. I heard Fareed Zakaria say that right, that there's this cultural politics that's taken over from economic issues. Come to India, Farid, meet livelihood issues in rural Bihar and you will know what really counts. There's no culture. When I am a Musahar and I'm from a family which is struggling to make ₹6000 a month, I want that 5 kilos of rice at free. It changes my life. You know when you have 400 people in a bus meant for 100 people, you realize what a free bus ride means to a woman. It gives her a sense of independence. Very easy for us to sit in rooms like this and sort of say yeto freebie here and a freebie aapkeli hoga for that woman, its empowerment. She can go out on her own, do work. That's the new India and we need to recognize Sir Modi has recognized it. I'll give Modi credit Rahul for that. Modi and other leader Nitish Kumar, Jay Lalita Mamta Banerjee. The clever leaders have realized a mahila vote and whoever can. Now Congress has also belatedly realized with the Mahalakshmi scheme something that they should have been trumping much more. Instead of getting into wealth redistribution fights, you should have focused on the women vote. You could win this election. So Rajdeep, I think in last 10 years you are coming to the fold of pollster now I think you should retire from journalism. You have started talking more like a pollster than a journalist because you are trying and getting to the ground and understanding the ground realities and you're speaking whatever. Last 10 years back, I know when I used to talk about condition of roads, electricity, water. You said to Pradeep yet to hotel ETA Chhodo na. I am telling you 20/16/2016 when I gave Bengal election, I predicted 220 odd seats for TMC. You said Pradeep TMCK logo ka phone. I think Finance Minister Mr. Mitra TMC, Pradeep Gupta, Rajya Sabha ticket is creating trouble for us. I don't know what's up but but let's look at this election as we as we approach it, as pollsters. Has it become more difficult therefore Sanjay Kumar to predict an Indian election because there are so many complexities Indian voters? Remarkable. They vote differently in Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha. We are seeing it. I believe Maharashtra voter will vote very differently for a state election four months from now. Is it more difficult now to predict the mind of an Indian voter than it was, say, 10 years ago? My job has become very easy because we don't predict elections anymore. We used to do that earlier. But even predicting, yes, we do what we do through our research. We try and give a sense of how India voted, how people have voted, what has been the issue. And yes, we try and give you a sense of you means all the viewers, readers, a sense of how people have voted, what has been the shift, what has been the reasons you would not find us coming out with any numbers about the seats. That's why my job is easy. We don't predict the election, but we try and give you a sense of the support base of political parties, which is to say the vote share. Where does the party stand? Which party is ahead and which party is trailing and about what margin, whether whether it is 10 percent, 12% or 5%. Pradeep. But is it more difficult? No, not at all. I mean I enjoy that. Thanks to access my India team and we enjoy the most difficult puzzle to solve. So it is not at all difficult for us to predict. And I'm telling you this election as well, there are a state which is totally in one sided. There are a state which is 1 sided on the with the other political party and there are states which is tough competition. What do you call which is the most difficult state this time according to you just wait for some time. No, no that you can tell us. You can tell us which is the most difficult state. Just wait for June 1st, 6:00 PM onwards. You will get to see and no seat by seat analysis for all 543 seats. We can tell you which independent candidate is winning and where he is likely to win. So don't worry. 4-4 days under preparation. I don't want to serve you half kuttur. You would not like it. KR Pradeep Namakka moga kya baat kartu. So I don't want that kind of situation nonstop. Marketing machine marketing guys can learn some lessons. Let's get a question from Rajesh Shah. He runs a champion Kabadi team, as you know, also runs Mukund. Go for it. Hi. Hi, Radhi. You seem to be on quite a role this evening, so let's keep you rolling. All right. Now you spoke, you talked about churning a couple of nights ago political earthquake was the phrase you used. And you've been going around talking to youth and the silent women. Tell us a little more. I used the earthquake only so that people would watch the show. It was pure marketing. You know, if I if I said its a normal election, who's going to watch? You have to say its an earthquake. You have to excite the look I I just I just think that this is a fascinating Indian election because its see 2014 was a mood for change 20/19 was this muscular nationalism. 2024 is much more like a normal Indian election with the Modi factor overwhelming you know except for that finally we are seeing real issues being debated on the ground. I'm not saying it will translate into votes, see a lot of chatter. We we know, we chat Berozghari rural distress, we chat about it. But I'm not so sure how much of that will translate into votes. But you know its just wonderful to meet Indians who still are excited about election. The worry I have is money, power. I think the one reason why I think what depresses you, as I heard people in Telangana telling me that it now cost them 80 to 90 crores, 80 to 90 crores to fight A1 Lok Sabha election in one seat, one candidate. I heard stories in Mumbai when a particular candidate apparently has spent 40 crores, basically trying to bribe voters. I mean, then you're skewing democracy. That's not a level playing field. And even across the country, you know, the fact is the BJP is outspending its rivals, 12:50. Does that make it a level playing field? So that's the worrying part. I mean, they have every right to spend what they want. But it would be nice if we could have a more even system. I don't know how we are going to get it. Maybe they have ideas, but I have no way to know how this money power is going to end. Because then it means see, why are you blaming only the BJP when it comes to spending? Take for example, wherever the Congress is in power in southern states like Karnataka or Telangana. Has money not been spent? Take for example, DMK being in power in Tamil Nadu or the AIDMK before it. This is an I'll that cuts across party lines, not just signal out one party for it. I'm saying pan India. Obviously the BJP is outspending its rivals. But you're right, in individual states where a party is in power, its able to outspend. But I'm just saying the scale of money Rahul, which means that a very talented village pradhan who doesn't have money cannot contest an election anymore if he's a honest man who has, look at Mumbai or Thane, most of the people who are contesting look Vidhan Sabha election will be real estate guys. They're the guys who've made money in the last 2530 years and they will contest elections. I mean its not ideal. I don't think so. That's my view. No, no. But Rajdeep, what happened? See you may have N number of money and you can spend N amount of money but voter never ever vote based on your money power. So you are saying you cannot contest election. In my own assembly constituency, one side candidate from BJP filthily Rich is spending lots of money and the other side my own friend who was we were friend and studied together in primary school. He simply said Sir, by mere pas koi pesaniye, main aapke pas kewal apna baikse aapke saath campaigning karunga and he won by 350 votes that to postal votes, EVM votes, BJP won by 57 votes but through postal vote he won by 350 votes. So I mean one can spend money is like on your well-being, you can spend an amount of money but I am wearing just ₹200 a tshirt. So what does it matter? This is the kind of line Rahul Gandhi would give. You know they go meh cable white tshirt pentao. No, no. I'm saying you said you cannot contest election without money. More and more difficult. No, I disagree. I think its becoming more and more difficult Rahul. That's the point I'm making. Its the other way round. We are out of time on this session. Richa Sharma is here. Everyones waiting to listen to him. But one thing seems quite clear before I wrap up what was earlier. No contest. One way. There's a lot of predictability around the election. No matter what the end result, 2:00 PM on the 4th or at 7:00 PM on the first one thing is clear. There's now enough buzz and excitement around the Indian election. That's what makes Rajdeeps job, my job, that much more exciting. And that's what all of us at the India A Group are preparing for, for that exit poll and for that counting then we look forward to having you with us for the time being. Pradeep Gupta, I hope you've been practicing your dance moves. Because if you intend to dance, just kind of there has to be one better move than this, a little better than that. Let me get my numbers right first and then, then well decide what to do. That's that's the other thing we need to clarify. Its not about who wins the election. If we get the numbers right, we will do a dance. If we get the numbers wrong, we will be more Rajdeeps. Children told him, pass. Do whatever you do. Dad, don't dance. Then they say pap, bache, Papa, kin sunte. In this case, the Papa is not listening to the children. Rajdeep, look, I have two left feet, but with Pradeep, I'll well do a jig. I'm, I'm pretty confident that by 12:00 on the 4th, we should have clarity. This is not going to be a long night. That's my sense, you know, because we work so hard on data analytics, we don't want this to end at 12. We want this to go on as long as is possible because if it does, that's when the power of the election intelligence dashboard comes alive. If it ends very quickly, then everyone knows what's happening and nobodys interested in my data analytics. So that's no fun. But thank you very much Sanjay Kumar for joining us. Absolute pleasure to have you with us. Pradeep Gupta, thank you very much. I hope that thali comes out nicely cooked. Rajdeep, thank you for joining us as well. Rajdeep will of course, stay back for the next session. Thank you. Can we have a warm round of applause, please?

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