Donald Trump Trial Verdict Crucial to Voters in New Poll

donald trump trial verdict crucial to voters in new poll

Former President Donald Trump sits in the courtroom for his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21, 2024, in New York City.

A new poll released on Thursday found that if former President Donald Trump is found guilty in his Manhattan hush money trial, he will lose the popular vote to President Joe Biden.

Despite Trump facing four criminal indictments, all in which he pleaded not guilty, it remains a tight race in the polls between him and Biden, the Democratic incumbent. However, a conviction for Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, could paint a different picture.

Marquette Law School surveyed 902 registered voters nationwide from May 6 to May 15. When asking half of the poll sample if they would vote for Trump or Biden if Trump is found guilty in his New York trial, 43 percent chose Biden while only 39 percent said Trump.

However, when the other half of the sample was given the scenario of Trump being found not guilty, the ex-president is ahead by 6 points—44 percent said they'd vote for Trump and 38 percent for the president.

When reached by Newsweek, Biden's campaign on Thursday declined comment. Newsweek also reached out to Trump's team via email.

The popular vote may show which nominee America supports the most, but it does not win elections. The U.S. employs the Electoral College voting process in which every state gets a certain number of electoral votes based on population, and whichever nominee wins the majority—270 votes—gets elected president.

In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won the Electoral College with 306 votes over the 232 garnered by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his Democratic adversary. However, Clinton won the popular vote with 65.8 million votes compared to Trump's 62.9 million.

According to the poll, 65 percent of total respondents said they heard a lot about the trial while 28 percent heard a little and 7 percent heard nothing about it.

Trump's trial, which began in April, is nearing the end, as closing arguments are slated for Tuesday. Soon enough, America will find out if Trump will become the first former U.S. president not only charged with a crime—but also convicted—or if he will get through his first criminal trial unscathed, at least in the legal sense.

Following an investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office, Trump was indicted in March 2023 on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal hush money paid to adult-film star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign.

Daniels claims she had an affair with Trump in 2006, which he has denied. The former president has maintained his innocence and said the case against him, like his other three criminal indictments, is politically motivated.

According to a national YouGov/The Economist poll of U.S. adults conducted from May 19 to May 21, Trump is leading Biden by just one point (41 percent to 40 percent). There were 1,558 respondents and the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

Out of 1,782 respondents in the same poll, 45 percent said that Trump should be convicted of a crime in the hush money case, while 38 percent said he should not, and 17 percent were unsure.

Update 05/23/24, 6:30 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.

Related Articles

    Start your unlimited Newsweek trial

    OTHER NEWS

    16 minutes ago

    Team tweak as Sky Blues look to avenge Origin loss

    16 minutes ago

    Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun to be questioned on company's 'broken safety culture'

    16 minutes ago

    Should Jets Be Concerned Over Will McDonald?

    16 minutes ago

    JAN MOIR: James Corden has swapped Hollywood for the Old Vic. So will playing an ex-soldier in a downward spiral revive his career?

    16 minutes ago

    Plastic surgeon, 40, is charged with killing his glamorous surgery-obsessed wife, 33, after refusing to call 911 when she began seizing on his operating table while suturing her own skin

    16 minutes ago

    This bloke knows how to bowl a maiden over! Kiwi star returns insane figures at T20 World Cup

    21 minutes ago

    European markets head for positive open after choppy start to the week

    23 minutes ago

    Rent Hikes Loom, Posing Threat to Inflation Fight

    23 minutes ago

    It’s Time to Defend Your Wealth: 3 Top Stocks to Help Keep What’s Yours

    23 minutes ago

    Supreme Court ruling on phone data in attempted murder case may significantly affect Graham Dwyer appeal decision

    23 minutes ago

    Ukraine v Romania: Stanciu stunner kickstarts Munich rout at Euro 2024

    23 minutes ago

    Germany Sees Increased Migration via Belarus

    23 minutes ago

    The highs and lows of Russia-North Korea relations under Putin

    23 minutes ago

    Sky News poll reveals what people really think about immigration and whether it's good or bad for the UK

    23 minutes ago

    Kremlin Keeps Quiet on US Journalist's Espionage Trial

    23 minutes ago

    Half of voters doubt parties can afford their manifestos, new poll reveals

    23 minutes ago

    Multiple North Korean soldiers 'killed or injured' by exploding landmines inside Demilitarized Zone just hours before Putin's meeting with Kim Jong Un

    23 minutes ago

    Mom claims she and her children were kicked out of LA brewery for objecting to man in woman's restroom

    26 minutes ago

    RBA keeps interest rates on hold at 4.35pc in June

    28 minutes ago

    Russia's Putin in rare visit to North Korea

    28 minutes ago

    Used Rover Mini 1991-2000 review

    29 minutes ago

    Residents must be IFP members to get service

    29 minutes ago

    After record-high heat-related deaths in 2023, New Orleans braces for another hot summer

    29 minutes ago

    Al Horford's emotional celebration ahead of the Celtics winning the NBA Finals will give you goosebumps

    29 minutes ago

    Queensland legends like new NSW team

    29 minutes ago

    Magic Johnson hysterically lamented the Celtics passing the Lakers in all-time NBA titles

    29 minutes ago

    Jamie Carragher names the team England must avoid to win Euro 2024

    30 minutes ago

    Why millions of Aussies are set to suffer even with rates on hold in June as Reserve Bank hints at more pain

    33 minutes ago

    Fallout 4: Best Strength Perks

    33 minutes ago

    U.S. Open 2024: Rory McIlroy’s plane was in the air heading to Florida less than an hour after Bryson’s final putt dropped

    33 minutes ago

    Sharks GM Grier says Couture trade rumours are ‘absolutely false’

    33 minutes ago

    West Indies hit 36 runs in one over

    34 minutes ago

    When violence and trauma visit American places, a complex question follows: Demolish, or press on?

    34 minutes ago

    Before his summit with North Korea's Kim, Putin vows they'll beat sanctions together

    35 minutes ago

    Endorsed by JLo and Kim Kardashian, the Birkin became the must-have bag for elite burglary gangs

    35 minutes ago

    Jeep's cheapest EV yet will use a familiar name

    35 minutes ago

    Decode Politics: Why Rahul Gandhi gave up Wayanad, retained Rae Bareli, as Priyanka is set for poll debut

    35 minutes ago

    ‘This is crazy’: Woman wins $21m lottery

    35 minutes ago

    Winn's homer in 12th, Carlson's throw lead Cardinals over Marlins for 1st winning record since April

    35 minutes ago

    Secretlab's Monster Hunter Fatalis chair is the stuff of dreams for fans