Reform 'could cost the Tories 28 seats' even though Nigel Farage U-turned on plan to run as an MP as insurgent party's votes threaten to hand constituencies to Labour

Reform UK could cost the Conservatives up to 28 seats at the general election despite Nigel Farage dodging another bid to become an MP, an analysis has found.

The Tories were handed a huge boost in the opening stages of campaigning after Mr Farage announced he would not be standing as a Reform candidate on 4 July.

The Brexit champion, who is honorary president of Reform, revealed he would not be making a return to frontline politics but vowed to 'do my bit to help' the party.

Mr Farage's decision was seen as a huge boost to Rishi Sunak as the PM attempts to overhaul Labour's huge poll lead over the Tories over the next six weeks.

But an analysis of detailed polling data has shown the huge threat Reform still poses to the Conservatives at the general election.

Reform UK could cost the Conservatives up to 28 seats at the general election despite Nigel Farage dodging another bid to become an MP, an analysis has found

Reform UK could cost the Conservatives up to 28 seats at the general election despite Nigel Farage dodging another bid to become an MP, an analysis has found

The analysis of detailed polling data has shown the huge threat Richard Tice's Reform still poses to the Conservatives at the general election

The analysis of detailed polling data has shown the huge threat Richard Tice's Reform still poses to the Conservatives at the general election

Mr Farage's decision was seen as a huge boost to Rishi Sunak as the PM, pictured in Belfast today, attempts to overhaul Labour's huge poll lead over the Tories over the next six weeks

Mr Farage's decision was seen as a huge boost to Rishi Sunak as the PM, pictured in Belfast today, attempts to overhaul Labour's huge poll lead over the Tories over the next six weeks

Your browser does not support iframes.

According to the Telegraph, there are 28 seats in which the insurgent party presents a major obstacle to Tory hopes.

YouGov polling data indicates Reform is expected to win more than 20 per cent of the vote in a series of English constituencies across the North and Midlands.

This could see the Richard Tice-led party deny the Conservatives a win by taking a large slice of the right-wing vote, or even leapfrog the Tories and come second, the newspaper reported.

In the Tory-held Boston and Skegness constituency, which is being contested by Mr Tice, one in four voters are expected to support Reform.

The Conservatives are polling at 36 per cent in the Lincolnshire constituency, followed by Labour in second on 28 per cent and Reform third on 25 per cent.

Barnsley South, Doncaster North, Bassetlaw, and Rotherham are other seats that are also high on Reform's target list.

Reform already hold one seat in the House of Commons following the defection of former Conservative deputy chairman Lee Anderson after he lost the Tory whip.

In the Nottinghamshire constituency, Reform are polling at 23 per cent - although this would not be enough to beat Labour, who are polling at 35 per cent.

The Conservatives are fearful that Reform's decision to stand in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland will split the right-wing vote and deliver a huge boost to Labour's chances in many parts of Britain.

At the 2019 general election, the Brexit Party - the precursor to Reform - struck a deal with then-PM Boris Johnson not to stand in Tory-held seats.

Mr Farage has repeatedly claimed this was a major factor in Mr Johnson securing his 80-seat majority.

The analysis showed there are a further 375 seats where Reform could secure more than 12 per cent of the vote on 4 July.

It was based on YouGov polling produced through a constituency-level MRP study of more than 15,000 voters in late March.

Mr Farage insisted he wants to focus on backing Donald Trump 's campaign in the US, as he announced he will not be a candidate for the Commons

Mr Farage insisted he wants to focus on backing Donald Trump 's campaign in the US, as he announced he will not be a candidate for the Commons

[video_shortcode_video_html_5 src="https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2024/05/23/3100075000472909911/1024x576_MP4_3100075000472909911.mp4" itemprop="image" content="https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2024/05/23/3100075000472909911/1024x576_MP4_3100075000472909911.mp4" data-src="https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2024/05/23/3100075000472909911/1024x576_MP4_3100075000472909911.mp4"]

Mr Farage last night claimed he was preparing to launch a campaign next week to stand as an MP before Mr Sunak announced the general election date.

He told GB News: 'I have always said that there will be a moment when I throw my hat in the ring fully into British politics.

'I've also said aged 60, I've got one more card to play and it's about when I play it. I had, to be honest with you, put in place some preparations to launch next week.

'I wonder whether the Conservative Party found out about it.'

Asked to clarify that he was referring to launching a campaign to stand as an MP, he replied: 'Yes, absolutely.'

But Mr Farage admitted the PM had 'wrong-footed' him by calling an election for July 4, which was much earlier than most had expected.

He said: 'What I could not do in the space of six weeks… was to find a constituency from scratch and go around the country.'

He added he had not decided which constituency he would run in as of yet as there were 'a variety of options' which he felt he could have gone for.

Despite not running as a candidate, Mr Farage said he would campaign for Reform and stressed his support for party leader Mr Tice.

He added: 'Am I going to be campaigning? Yes. Am I backing Richard Tice? One hunderd per cent… I am utterly committed to Reform.

'I believe their agenda is the only one that can actually stop the sense of national decline that we're in.'

Mr Farage is cancelling his GB News show to free up time for campaigning.

In a statement announcing his decision not to stand at the general election, Mr Farage pointed to his focus on getting Donald Trump re-elected as US president.

OTHER NEWS

4 hrs ago

Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy 'getting fed up' with owner Jerry Jones: report

4 hrs ago

Who Should Steelers Hope Wins Training Camp QB Battle?

4 hrs ago

Goaltender's dad talks up the Oilers' chances of lifting the Stanley Cup

4 hrs ago

Phillies turn rare 1-3-5 triple play against Tigers, 1st since 1929

4 hrs ago

Discount Burger Check? Chiefs' Reid Shares Hilarious Commercial Story

4 hrs ago

'Devastating loss': Digital lending library, Internet Archive, removes 500,000 books after being sued by publishers

4 hrs ago

Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: WTA ‘Big 4’ state of play ahead of Wimbledon

4 hrs ago

Would a Toronto byelection loss spell doom for Trudeau?

4 hrs ago

BlackSuit ransomware gang blamed for ongoing car dealership outages

4 hrs ago

'Unreal' injury-time equaliser saves football powerhouse

4 hrs ago

Nigel Farage accused of cosying up to the Kremlin by former NATO boss

4 hrs ago

Dagestan, in southern Russia, has a history of violence. Why does it keeps happening?

4 hrs ago

Marines revive a World War II airfield on Peleliu in Pacific pivot

4 hrs ago

Fortnite Brings Tilted Towers and Other Fan Favorite Locations, But With a Twist

4 hrs ago

Shadow of the Erdtree Puts the Cherry on Top of Elden Rings Main Strength

4 hrs ago

Anger erupts as Albo's governor-general is awarded payrise

4 hrs ago

Charo Makes Rare Public Appearance at Project Angel Food Event: 'Life Is Beautiful' (Exclusive)

4 hrs ago

Boozed-up England fans sing '10 German bombers' chant in Cologne

4 hrs ago

Show Respect: ‘Boys are surprised we talk about this, it’s become normalised’

4 hrs ago

After clash with prosecutor, judge reserves ruling on restricting Trump’s rhetoric about agents’ classified documents search

5 hrs ago

Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan ‘doesn’t deliver’ any ‘energy price decrease’ until 2040

5 hrs ago

Where to watch Netherlands vs. Austria live stream, TV channel, lineups, prediction for Euro 2024 match

5 hrs ago

China lunar probe to return to Earth with samples

5 hrs ago

Report: Knicks’ OG Anunoby declines player option, enters unrestricted free agency

5 hrs ago

Saints offensive line ranked 19th in the NFL

5 hrs ago

Senators acquire goaltender Linus Ullmark from Bruins

5 hrs ago

Why Qld feels like home for the Blues

5 hrs ago

Seahawks waive 3 undrafted free agents, make UFL champ signing official

5 hrs ago

Andrew Scott Frantically Runs to Hear Taylor Swift's ‘Style' at 'Eras Tour'

5 hrs ago

England’s Test series v New Zealand: Date, kick-off time and TV channel

5 hrs ago

Bills' McDermott Says Von Miller Has ‘Something to Prove’

5 hrs ago

US prosecutors want Boeing to face criminal charges

5 hrs ago

Finance Minister Michael McGrath set to become Ireland's new EU Commissioner

5 hrs ago

Red-hot Cardinals get huge boost in return of star catcher

5 hrs ago

How police use the mail to spy on you: 60,000 cases in last decade with little pushback

5 hrs ago

These 3 Republicans are Trump’s most likely VP picks

5 hrs ago

Roy Jones Jr. announces his son, DeAndre, died by suicide

5 hrs ago

Luxury Gyms, Like Equinox and Life Time, Are Taking Over Big Retail Spaces

5 hrs ago

Automobili Pininfarina PURA Vision wins prestigious Red Dot Award: Design Concept 2024

5 hrs ago

Pop legend Robbie Williams wears his AFL jersey to see if he still gets recognised in London - with some very surprising results