Gold Set to Reach $3,000 Over Next 12 Months, Citi Says

Can I ask you, Max about FX markets and the dollar and the role of the dollar here? I was reading some research by Bloomberg Intelligence saying that platinum, copper, silver, these are the metals that have the strongest negative correlation in their view or by, you know, thanks to their analysis to the dollar. And what is the, what is your expectation there? Because that takes us into, you know, FOMC Fed expectations, what the dollar does. How much are you thinking about that? Yeah, we certainly think about that. The house view is quite out of consensus in terms of city researchers house view. We've got five fed cuts this year, lower real rates into the end of the year, early next year. And that's certainly going to be we think the backbone of the next move higher in gold, right. So we, you know gold's probably the one that we think is most leveraged to to that out of consensus view. We've got to go into $3000 over the next 12 months. So oil lower, gold high. So the market is only pricing in one right now. Where does that, where does that leave gold? And I was going to. Yeah, come on to talk to you about gold prices. Yeah. I mean, you certainly would make us less foolish. But I mean, the underlying drivers of gold are very physical at the moment. So we feel like there's support for these gold prices. Obviously, gold's broken the rate, the relationship with real rates of late. And that's been all about your colossal Chinese retail demand. I mean, off the charts. And China's like in my career, I've never seen China on the bid at the highs. And the, the, the dollar notional that they're putting into gold is, you know, we ballparked it. It's roughly 40 to 50% of what would have otherwise gone into property. It's a big shift from property spending into gold in retail in China. It mopped up about 2/3 of ex China mine supply in the last 3-4 months. So, you know, really absorbing all the mine supply that plus the central bank demand and there's nothing left for the jewelry market. And and just just, I know critics coming in, but does that change that dynamic in China around gold? Does that change? Do you see anything that changes that? Yeah. I mean, that is that is the biggest downside risk to gold for us is that ultimately the government controls the quotas on the imports. And I mean the, the the imports aren't necessarily the quotas aren't published and they could dry up if the government becomes unhappy with the transfer of wealth from perhaps consumption and retail in into into physical gold. So what's the way, what's the way to invest in gold then? Right now, if I'm, if I'm a investor looking at gold as potentially that central bank hedge or whatever your your full case might be, Do you do it with the physical demand? Do you call your folks in Asia and say let's stock up? Or do you do avert via the liquid ETF markets of the states? How do you access it? How do you get to it? Sure. I mean, there's equities ETF, the commodity, sure, But what's the what's the most like lucrative? Like, yeah, I mean, CFTCI always worry about getting these questions because I can only answer on the commodity side. I'm not allowed to give a call on equities, certainly not let's talk about ETFs. But look, on the commodity side, we've got, I mean, I would say overall the action in commodities has been almost 95 to 99% copper from a client activity perspective from from what I hear about and I see it's not so much been in gold. I think there's a lot of room for gold. I mean, frankly, people are many people, including ourselves were scratching our heads as to what the, you know, new drivers were. And now they've become clear that it's China. You know, I think we're going to get a lot more interesting gold because people can kind of get their get their heads around it.

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