Ukrainian morale collapsing as Russia advances on weakened army

Russia’s advance in the Kharkiv region is President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces and expose a weak spot, say military analysts.

Russian forces claim to have captured nine border villages in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine after launching a fresh offensive on Friday, which focused on two areas, one north of Kharkiv City around Lyptsi and the other northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk.

The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia had “made tactically significant gains” while Russian media said troops have entered Vovchansk in what appears to be the country’s fastest advance since the first days of the war.

Ukraine was defiant, with Tamaz Gambarashvili, head of Vovchansk’s military administration, telling Reuters the town remained under Kyiv’s control after its soldiers turned back small groups of Russians. But almost 6,000 residents have been forced to evacuate as Russian amoured assault groups, airstrikes, drones and shelling targeted the area.

And Kyiv has sacked its commander for northeastern Kharkiv frontline after reports Russian soldiers were seen “walking in” without opposition.

Dr Matthew Ford, an associate professor at the Swedish Defence University in Stockholm, told i that “morale in Ukraine is collapsing” in part because “they can see the West hasn’t taken defence of their country seriously”.

He said the long-awaited $61bn military aid package from the US was a way off being effective, after the latest tranche of support was announced on Friday. “It won’t be useful to them until later in the year, the end of August,” Dr Ford said.

Artillery shells, which are easier to ship, and items already in Poland may cross the border more quickly but more substantial military aid is likely to take longer to arrive.

Thousands of people have been evacuated from border areas in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, as Russia launched a cross-border offensive. (Photo: Roman PilpeyAFP/Getty)

Dr Ford warned the Russians were “moving toward manpower superiority over the course of this year” with conscription of around 30,000 a month.

“The actual manpower advantage the Russians will have towards the end of the year has the potential to overrun the Ukrainians,” he said. “There are questions around equipment and training but we can see straightaway the Ukrainians are in a difficult spot.”

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He said the West did not start ramping up defence spending in time for this war and now doesn’t have sufficient resources in place to defend itself and help Ukraine.

“The West not been serious enough in defending Ukraine and not understood how badly resourced Nato forces are,” he said.

“The West does not have the capability to rebuild its deterrent or to supply Ukraine with the resources to defend itself or push the Russians back.”

Ukraine’s Brigadier General, Mykhailo Drapatyi, has now been brought in take command of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said “defensive battles” had engulfed a string of Kharkiv region villages and fighting was “no less acute” in the Donetsk region.

Mr Zelensky emphasised how important “timely supplies” were. “The package that really helps is the weapons brought to Ukraine, not just the announced ones.”

Dr Ford said Russia’s tactic in targeting the Kharkiv region could be to distract from other fronts such as Donetsk and force Ukraine to spread its resources more thinly along the frontline.

He said: “It seems to me they are creating uncertainty where Ukrainian’s need to deploy their reserves.

“It’s stretching Ukraine’s military capabilities harder and that’s the point… somewhere, Ukraine is not going to have the capability to resist.”

Whether Russia will continue to target Kharkiv or refocus resources on Donetsk remains uncertain. Dr Ford said: “I don’t know the answer… if only to be in the mind of the new Russian minister of defence.”

David Lewis, professor of global politics at the University of Exeter and member of defence think tank Rusi, said Russia seemed to have several goals in Kharkiv.

“First, to open up a new front that spreads Ukraine’s defences along the front more thinly,” he said.

Where Russia has advanced in Ukraine (Image: inews)

“Second, to create a buffer zone to limit Ukrainian cross-border attacks and to allow the Russians to threaten Kharkiv city with artillery.

“And third, to put more pressure on Ukrainian positions around the strategically important town of Kupiansk.”

Russia’s apparent attempt to create a buffer zone comes as at least 15 people were killed and dozens injured on Sunday after a missile attack on an apartment block in the Russian region of Belgorod.

Russian officials claimed Ukraine was behind the attack, which used Soviet-era involving Tochka ballistic missiles and Adler and RM-70 Vampire (MLRS) multiple launch rocket systems.

Professor Lewis does not believe Russia has the forces in place to take control of the city of Kharkiv but said they “will try to make life there very difficult through constant attacks, forcing more people to evacuate”.

The remains of a building in Vovchansk, Kharkiv after Russian shelling. (Photo: Yakiv Liashenko/Anadolu/Getty)

He thinks Ukraine will probably be able to prevent a major breakthrough around Kharkiv, but said it “faces a serious challenge along many parts of the front”.

He added: “It needs to balance the defence of territory around Kharkiv with the need to contain Russian advances further south in the Donbas.”

Denys Yaroslavskyi, commander of a Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit, told the BBC Russian troops appeared to enter the Kharkiv frontline without opposition. He had drone footage from a few days ago, which appeared to show small columns of Russian troops walking across the border.

He said: “There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in.

“They just walked in, without any mined fields.”

Oleh Syniehubov, Kharkiv region’s governor, told local media he also thought Russian forces were attacking the border of Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv region in small groups in an attempt to stretch the frontline and that other towns could be at risk.

He said: “The enemy is trying to deliberately stretch it [front line], attacking in small groups, but in new directions, so to speak.”

He added that Ukrainian forces were holding Russian troops back but there was a threat the fighting could spread.