Where do Maple Leafs and captain John Tavares go from here?
TORONTO — John Tavares was only 48 hours removed from another gutting early playoff exit, the sixth lost season of his seven-year commitment to his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs, when his phone rang.
From one first-overall pick to another, Rick Nash was inviting Tavares to swap his blue Maple Leaf for a red one, to jet to Prague and captain his country’s bid for repeat gold at the IIHF World Championship.
Tavares says accepting the honour “made sense” for many reasons, where the most senior member of the squad is now leading an intriguing roster that features, among others, phenom Connor Bedard, ex-teammate Michael Bunting, and Leafs villain Ridly Greig.
Interviewed by the broadcast Sunday after setting up Dylan Cozens’ game-winning goal over Denmark, Tavares didn’t elaborate on his reasons for bolting overseas to play more hockey when his fellow star Maple Leafs teammates declined.
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But we can imagine them:
• Tavares will be 34 when the puck drops on the final season of his current contract. Chances to represent his country are dwindling, and if he has any aspirations of making the bottom-six cut for 2025’s Four Nations Face-Off, answering the bell for Hockey Canada can’t hurt. Further, Tavares has high respect for repaying the sport that has given him so much. Hence, his policy to never decline an all-star invite.
• The man is a rink rat who refuses to succumb to Father Time without a fight. If he wasn’t repping his country in games of consequence, he’d probably be punching the clock at Ford Performance Centre, working on his acceleration and snap snot anyway. Summer is long for first-round victims. Taraves is seizing an opportunity to get energized by young talent and try to capture gold in a beautiful city.
• Tavares has won world junior gold (twice), Olympic gold, a World Cup gold, and even Spengler Cup gold. A world championship would complete the set. He’s been to the worlds three times previously (2010, 2011, 2012) and never finished higher than fifth, despite Tavares himself putting up 30 points over 24 games.
• Finally: If you were the captain of the Maple Leafs and lived smack in High Park, wouldn’t you be happy to get outta town right now, too? The noise quiets and the pain dulls when you’re six time zones away.
“The realization that it’s over, it’s very difficult to accept and hard to deal with,” Tavares said last week, between packing up and shipping out. “Just one shot away…”
As Tavares made his way to Europe, Leafs president Brendan Shanahan gave a non-endorsement of his position on Toronto’s 2024-25 roster.
Asked directly Friday if he would approach Tavares (and Mitch Marner) about waiving his no-move clause, Shanahan said: “Everything is on the table. We will discuss everything. I don’t think it serves the Toronto Maple Leafs in any fashion to discuss those things prematurely, to discuss those individuals prematurely.”
The Maple Leafs are nearing a crossroads with the 81st highest scorer in the history of the NHL.
While Tavares maintains he hasn’t given much thought into signing an extension with the team he famously chose in free agency — something he’ll become eligible for on Canada Day — the player himself has managed the spotlight well and shown zero inclination of wanting out of Toronto.
Tavares and wife Aryne are raising three young children in the city. He is close to the necessary support of extended family. He has benefitted from multiple outside endorsement deals. And he did score the clinching goal of the one series the Leafs have won since ex-GM Kyle Dubas backed up the Brink’s truck with $77 million.
“I love playing here. It’s a remarkable place to play,” Tavares said. “And when I committed here six years ago, obviously I saw a tremendous amount of talent and an amazing hockey market and organization that’s fully committed to winning and doing whatever it can — and I still feel that way.
“Whether it’s [facing] defensive teams, physical teams, whatever’s required, I think we’ve certainly shown a lot of growth in those areas. Obviously, we still got to overcome some of the hurdles to get the job done — and that’s on us and on myself. But I think we’re right there.”
Ah, there’s the rub.
The Maple Leafs brass — finally! — has stopped fooling itself into believing this roster is right there. Which is why a trade (or two) from the core is being considered.
Tavares will be paid his final signing bonus installment on July 1, a whopping $7.04 million direct deposit. His base salary for 2024-25 will be just $910,000, making the centre an enticing target for any franchise that enjoys saving real dollars and has cap space to spare.
(Just spit-balling: Chicago, Anaheim, Columbus, San Jose, and nearby Buffalo could all make it work. Further, if they’re out of the playoff picture come trade deadline, Tavares would make a wonderful rental chip.)
Point is, Tavares would not be a “salary dump” in a hypothetical trade; the Leafs wouldn’t need to attach a sweetener, the way they did for Patrick Marleau did in 2019.
The question is twofold: Would Tavares, who holds the hammer here, be willing to waive his power and accept a trade, realizing the Leafs won’t be in any rush to re-sign him?
(Sidebar: Would Shanahan dare make things prickly by stripping Tavares’s C and handing it to Auston Matthews? Because Tavares already freely acknowledges that Matthews is the club’s driver, does such symbolism even matter?)
And just as interesting but less discussed: Can the Leafs actually improve by dealing Tavares?
While Tavares isn’t the emotional leader many fans are craving and his effectiveness is in decline, he’s still an elite faceoff man (59.3 per cent) and incredibly durable (80 games played). He’s a respected, low-maintenance teammate whose work ethic flies off the charts, and his production — 29 goals, 65 points — will be difficult to replace.
Compare Tavares’s output to the high end of centres set to hit unrestricted free agency.
Matt Duchene, 33, scored 25 goals and 65 points. Sean Monahan had 26 goals and 59 points. Chandler Stephenson put up 16 goals and 35 points. And Elias Lindholm notched 15 goals and 44 points in a down year. They’ll all be gunning for multi-year contracts.
In our opinion, the Leafs desperately need to add a middle-six centre even if they keep Tavares; it was a hole left unfilled at the trade deadline. Shed Tavares, and they’ll need two.
GM Brad Treliving cannot simply expediate the end of the Tavares era without a plan to backfill his meaningful minutes.
At the same time, Matthews and William Nylander are playing the best hockey of their lives. Toronto can’t simply afford to run it back — essentially run out the clock — with both Tavares and Marner and burn another year of their superstars’ prime.
We knew Tavares would lose a step as this seven-year commitment winded down.
Shanahan’s bet was that the captain’s decline would be more digestible with a banner in the rafters.
Now, it’s getting uncomfortable for both sides.
How uncomfortable? We’re about to find out.