Met Office 14 day outlook 26/04/2024

Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 14 day outlook. As we look at what we can expect through the very end of April, towards the middle of May, at the moment we are influenced by something of a squished Omega Block. We have high pressure towards the West of US, low pressure around the UK and also another area of low pressure just to the east of Canada. And it’s this that’s leading to a cold northerly flow which has led to some chilly air across the UK, which is why temperatures at the moment are a few degrees below average for the time of year. But as we go into the weekend, we are going to see an area of low pressure feeding up from the South, so some shower rain on Saturday. Bit heavier, more persistent rain wise, particularly across eastern parts as we go through. And there are couple of things going on, the main thing being an area of low pressure developing somewhere towards the West, southwest of the UK. Again, that’s going to bring some rain pushing through at times, particularly towards more southern parts as we go through the middle of the week. The other thing as well as something a bit more unsettled for some areas that this low pressure is going to bring is a real change in our wind direction. We’re going to be dragging in our air from the east as we go towards Tuesday, Wednesday time and that’s going to lift our temperatures. Warmer air means we’re likely to get back into the low 20s again. Looking a little bit further ahead and this is the most likely scenario from ECMWF for Thursday the 2nd of May and you can see the low pressures drifted a little bit further towards the east, but sticking with that easterly flow. So still bringing some warmer air. And we really have a NS split in terms of rainfall more unsettled towards the South, higher pressure towards the north, keeping things generally fine by them. If we look at the week as a whole for next week. So going from the 29th of April to the 6th of May and this is the pressure anomaly from ECMWF, lower than average pressure towards the South which sticks with the chance that I’ve just showed you, and higher than average pressure towards the north. And that does two things. Likely to keep drier weather towards the north of the UK which is shown by this rainfall anomaly chart and something a bit wetter to more towards more southern parts and sticking with something a bit warmer for a time. Albeit I am expecting temperatures to drop down again as we go towards next weekend. Returning closer to if not a little bit below average for the time of year, what happens thereafter and well, there’s only a relatively weak signal. I think it’s perhaps most likely that we’ll see something a bit drier towards more north northwestern parts as we go towards the middle of May with something a bit wetter towards the South. Not necessarily wetter than average for the time of year, but perhaps just a bit wetter than what will be further north. With that, then temperatures, like I said, starting to drop down again. And so they’re likely to be a little bit on the cool side, especially towards northeastern parts as there’s a fair chance that we’ll get something of a northerly flow developing as we go towards the middle of the month. We will of course keep you up to date with the forecast as we go through the next few days. I’ll see you again soon. Bye. Bye.