Why Aston Villa should be on Unai Emery’s list of top-four contenders

Unai Emery had his list prepared. “There are seven contenders to be in the top four,” he declared. “Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea.” His Aston Villa side were absent. “We are not a contender,” Emery smiled.

Which was an interesting claim, given Villa are fourth.

They sit two points behind leaders Arsenal, one point behind champions City, level with challengers Liverpool, ahead of the other four sides on Emery’s list. After all, Villa had just beaten one of them, coming from behind to hand Tottenham their third straight defeat and leapfrog Ange Postecoglou’s side. After 13 games and nine wins, they sit four points clear of sixth-placed Manchester United, five ahead of seventh-placed Newcastle, who put five past them on the opening weekend at St James’ Park. Then there is Chelsea in 10th, who are separated from Villa by not just 12 points, but Brighton and West Ham as well as the aforementioned clubs.

Emery, though, was keen to avoid signing off a statement win from Villa with a statement of his own. “Of course we can get confidence when we are winning matches like here at Tottenham,” he said. “But still in my mind, it is 38 matches that we have to be consistent.”

Perhaps Emery was not aware of the milestone he and Villa had just reached. Perhaps he was. Either way, Sunday’s 2-1 win in north London was the 38th time Emery had taken charge of Villa in the Premier League, the equivalent of a full season. Emery’s record stands at 24 wins, five draws and nine defeats, culminating in 77 points. Only Manchester City and Arsenal have taken more since the Spaniard was appointed last October and it is enough to put Villa third. Theoretically, had the season started then, Villa would have qualified for the Champions League this weekend.

Discount Emery’s first few weeks at the helm and Villa’s record improves further still. In 2023, only Pep Guardiola’s treble winners have won more Premier League games than Villa’s 22. Since the turn of the year, Villa have comfortably outperformed Manchester United and Newcastle, who both finished in last season’s top four, taking 11 more points than Eddie Howe’s side, scoring 15 more goals than Erik ten Hag’s men. If it is consistency over a season that Emery wants, Villa have shown that over a 38-match spell where they have taken an average of over two points per game.

Premier League table since Unai Emery took charge of Villa

After 38 games

1. Man City – 86 points, +54 GD

2. Arsenal – 80 points, +42 GD

3. Aston Villa – 77 points, +27 GD

4. Liverpool – 76 points, +36 GD

5. Man Utd – 76 points, +16 GD

6. Newcastle – 70 points, + 38 GD

7. Brighton – 63 points, +19 GD

8. Tottenham – 60 points, +5 GD

Villa’s latest victory came on the road and if that has perhaps been the only area where Emery’s team have not excelled, with nine wins from 19 away trips, then it has been off-set by their outstanding home form: Villa Park has staged 13 home wins in a row in the Premier League, their longest run since 1983.  A 2-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest aside, when Villa were poor and deservedly beaten, Emery’s high defensive line has been their undoing on their travels. It certainly was in the results at Newcastle and Liverpool. It threatened to be at Spurs but Villa were let off the hook by the hosts’ wasteful finishing.

It is not an approach that appears best suited to away fixtures, particularly against the big sides and those who Emery considers to be the real contenders for the top four. Yet it is a plan that Emery has refused to compromise on – one that has required Villa to be brave and bold, which in turn helps explain their position. While the win at Tottenham was eye-catching, Villa’s push has until this weekend been built by beating the sides in the bottom half of the table, where Emery’s team can be aggressive, play on the front foot and suffocate their opponents.

Sunday’s win at Tottenham was not an example of it, but Villa have an ability to win games comfortably. They have scored at least three goals in each of their last six Premier League matches at Villa Park and in Ollie Watkins, they possess what Manchester United and Chelsea do not appear to have, which is a leading forward who can score 20-plus goals per season. Incidentally, Watkins’ winner at Tottenham was his 20th Premier League goal under Emery.

There are signs that Villa can sustain the pace for another 38 games. Certainly, with Tottenham unable to field their starting midfield three or their first-choice centre-back partnership, and Newcastle hit by a similarly severe injury crisis, Villa’s squad also currently looks to be stronger than some of those who have been more vocal in declaring their top-four ambitions.

And these are still heady days in Villa’s recent history, at a time when there isn’t expectation, given that when Steven Gerrard was sacked and Emery was appointed 13 months ago the club were only outside of the relegation zone on goal difference. Now, after 38 games, there is a case to be made Villa have been the third-best team in the country since Emery arrived. While a Villa Park double-header against Manchester City and Arsenal looms next week, it appears to be a more daunting task for Guardiola and Mikel Arteta than it does for Emery’s in-form side. Keep this up, and he will be unable to talk Villa down any longer.