UFC 300: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway odds, picks and predictions

Apr 12, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; UFC fighter Justin Gaethje (left) faces off against Max Holloway during ceremonial weigh ins for UFC 300 at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In a 5-round lightweight bout on the main card, Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway meet Saturday at UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 300: Gaethje vs. Holloway odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.

Records: Gaethje (25-4-0) | Holloway (25-7-0)

Gaethje picked up a win last time out at UFC 291 in the 2nd round via KO/TKO against Dustin Poirier, exactly a little revenge for a loss back in April 2018. He also had a majority-decision win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 286, winning 2 fights after losing via submission to Charles Oliveira at UFC 274 for the lightweight strap.

Holloway has also won his past 2 fights since losing a title bout. At UFC 276, he suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski. He rebounded with a unanimous-decision win over Arnold Allen in the main event of a mid-April 2023 Fight Night, and he knocked out The Korean Zombie in a main event last time out Aug. 26, 2023.

Gaethje has a slight 1-inch reach advantage while also holding a slight 7.35-to-7.17 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He is much more accurate on those strikes, too, hitting 60.64% to just 49.25% for Holloway. The takedown game is where “Blessed” excels, and Holloway has a 0.27 takedown average and 53.33% takedown accuracy percentage with a 0.34 submission average.

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UFC 300: Gaethje vs. Holloway odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Gaethje -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Holloway +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
• Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -115 | Under -115)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

UFC 300: Gaethje vs. Holloway picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

GAETHJE (-150) is a good bet as the moderate favorite, but he’ll need to keep this fight upright. If Holloway (+125) is able to get Gaethje up against the fence and into a wrestling match, we could have a different result.

Remember, Gaethje has been submitted twice in the past 3½ years, falling to Oliveira in Round 1 after just 3:22 at UFC 274 in a title bout, and he was choked out by Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254 in Round 2, so there is plenty of risk here. He’ll need to keep this fight upright and a toe-to-toe brawl.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-115) is a strong play. As long as Holloway isn’t about to get this fight to the canvas, we’re likely going the distance.

As such, YES: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+100), is a strong play at even-money. Holloway has ended up going the distance in 8 of his past 9 fights dating back to UFC 236 April 13, 2019, exactly 5 calendar years ago.

Gaethje hasn’t needed the help of the judges as much lately, but 2 of his past 4 fights have ended up going the distance.

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: UFC 300: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway odds, picks and predictions