Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Apr 19, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) throws against the Texas Rangers in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Guardians (18-7) and Atlanta Braves (17-6) open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Atlanta won 2-1 last season

Cleveland came away with a 6-4 win over the Boston Red Sox Thursday while covering as a -123 home favorite. Cleveland scored 5 of its runs in the 2nd inning — all from HRs. The Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

Atlanta beat the Miami Marlins 4-3 in extra innings Wednesday while covering as a -262 home favorite. Atlanta led 3-1 until the Marlins tied the game in the 9th, but CF Michael Harris II hit a game-winning RBI double in the 10th. The Braves have won 3 consecutive games and 9 of the last 10.

Guardians at Braves projected starters

LHP Logan Allen vs. LHP Chris Sale

Allen (3-0, 5.06 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 26 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K in a 6-3 home win over the Oakland A’s Saturday
• First career start vs. Atlanta

Sale (2-1, 4.38 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 24 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K in an 8-3 home win over the Texas Rangers on April 19
• Career vs. Cleveland: 6-8, 4.60 ERA (135 IP, 69 ER), 137 H, 38 BB, 153 K in 21 starts and 11 relief appearances

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Guardians at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:14 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Guardians +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-120) | Braves -1.5 (+100)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Guardians at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Guardians 6

Moneyline

PASS.

I like the Braves (-210) to pick up the win as they are 4-1 in their last 5 matchups vs. Cleveland (+170), but they are not worth the risk of betting on as such heavy favorites. It’s also risky given how hot both teams are currently. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET GUARDIANS +1.5 (-120).

Both teams are hot and they’re 5-5 in their last 10 meetings. I trust Sale more than Allen, which is a big reason why I am sticking with the Braves to win, but I expect the Guardians to make this a very competitive game and series.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-105).

The Over has hit in 6 of Cleveland’s last 9 games and is 15-8-1 this year. For Atlanta, the Over hit in its last home game vs. an AL opponent and is 12-10-1 on the season. The Over has also hit in 4 of the last 6 Cleveland-Atlanta matchup overall, being 2-1 in the last 3 meetings in Atlanta.

Be aware that the Under is 7-3 in Atlanta’s last 10 games overall.

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions