Monday’s wild-card round needs the Eagles who took home a Week 3 win against Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield is nursing a rib injury but is expected to play Monday when the Eagles take on the Bucs in the NFC wild-card round.

Roughly four months after playing the Buccaneers in Week 3, the Eagles are headed back to Tampa.

Much has changed since their 25-11 win over the Bucs, but that initial game offers some clues as to which matchups could determine Monday’s wild-card round rematch.

Here are the five matchups to watch:

Jalen Hurts vs. the Bucs’ front seven

This could just as easily be considered Jalen Hurts vs. Todd Bowles. The Tampa Bay coach called blitzes at the third-highest rate in the NFL during the season and has a track record of sending extra rushers at Hurts in particular.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Bucs blitzed Hurts on 75% of his dropbacks in Week 3, nearly 35% higher than their overall blitz rate this season. Bowles was Tampa’s defensive coordinator when the Bucs beat the Eagles in the playoffs two years ago, and Hurts faced extra rushers on half of his dropbacks.

Hurts has made significant strides as a processor since that 31-15 wild-card loss, but it hasn’t stopped teams from blitzing him at a high frequency this season. Against the Bucs in Week 3, Hurts went 17-for-27 for 209 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He was only sacked once and had two scrambles for 14 yards. In the regular season, Hurts was the second-most blitzed quarterback in the NFL behind only Jordan Love.

Especially coming off the regular-season finale in which the offense struggled to sort out extra rushers, the onus will be on the Eagles’ coaching staff to give Hurts options versus the blitz and for Hurts to make quick decisions.

A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts were injured in a meaningless Eagles game. It was sickening.

Eagles’ run game vs. Bucs defense

Watching the Week 3 footage, the success with which the Eagles ran the ball stands out as something that’s been missing from the offense in recent weeks. D’Andre Swift finished with 131 yards and averaged a season-high 8.1 yards per carry while the Eagles amassed 201 rushing yards, surpassing the 200-yard mark for the second week in a row.

At the time, it seemed like the Eagles’ offense was rounding into form as a group capable of protecting leads with a dominant rushing attack, but theirs is a run game that has blown hot and cold since then. The team’s final drive, a 15-play series that chewed up more than nine minutes of game time, has especially been an element missing from the offense down the stretch.

Avonte Maddox’s return to the lineup offers another option for the Eagles at the cornerback position.

While the Eagles’ rushing game has regressed, the Bucs have done reasonably well stopping the run since then. They rank eighth in yards allowed per attempt and in DVOA against the run, which measures a team’s efficiency with the strength of opponent taken into consideration.

Whether the Eagles can sustain the run game against the Bucs figures to be a major factor on Monday. Doing so would keep the offense out of third-and-long situations and limit Bowles’ ability to get creative with blitzes in known passing situations.

It should also keep the Eagles’ struggling defense off the field.

In the Eagles’ week 3 meeting against Tampa Bay running back D’Andre Swift rushed for 131 yards, with over eight yards per carry.

Eagles DBs vs. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

Considering how poorly things have gone for the Eagles’ defense recently, it’s almost jarring to watch the group find the success it did in Week 3.

The Eagles used James Bradberry in the slot to match up with Chris Godwin most of the time, with Darius Slay primarily lining up against Mike Evans. Bradberry was targeted four times and only gave up two catches for 26 yards, according to PFF. Slay played even better, giving up just three catches for 12 yards, although Evans did catch a goal-line touchdown against Slay.

The Bucs successfully hunted matchups with Reed Blankenship in the first meeting, completing four passes for 78 yards against the safety. With Blankenship’s status going into this week up in the air because of a groin injury and Sydney Brown out for the year with a torn ACL, the Eagles will need to find a way to insulate veteran safety Kevin Byard and whoever plays across from him.

Avonte Maddox’s return to the lineup gives the Eagles an additional option at nickel cornerback. Slay’s potential return from arthroscopic knee surgery will leave de facto defensive coordinator Matt Patricia with an interesting choice between Kelee Ringo and Bradberry on the outside. If Ringo has done enough to keep the outside cornerback spot, it would make sense to see Bradberry playing as the extra defensive back in dime packages, especially if Blankenship is out.

Eagles’ pass rush vs. Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield went into Week 18 dealing with a rib injury and finished the Bucs’ win against the Panthers with an apparent limp.

Even if he recovers fully in time for next Monday, pressuring the journeyman quarterback will be the true test of his mobility after a long regular season. That’s easier said than done for the Eagles’ defense at this point in the year. Edge rusher duo Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick have been shut out on sacks since Week 14 and the defense hasn’t logged more than three in a game since Week 9.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts runs with the football against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday, Sept. 25, 2023.

Mayfield faced pressure on only eight of his dropbacks against the Eagles in Week 3 and was sacked twice, once by Marlon Tuipulotu and once by Jalen Carter. The Eagles’ defensive collapse in the last few games is multifaceted, but the lack of pass-rush productivity has been one of the primary issues. If the Eagles are going to turn things around in Tampa Bay, it will likely come down to their ability to impact Mayfield with the rush.

Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter (right) goes after Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield with teammate defensive tackle Fletcher Cox on Monday, Sept. 25, 2023.

Red zone: Bad vs. bad edition

If you watched the Bucs’ 9-0 win over Carolina on Sunday, it may not come as a surprise that they have one of the worst red-zone offenses in the NFL. They finished the season ranked 30th with a 44.9% conversion rate. They went 1-for-2 in the red zone against the Eagles in Week 3 and are coming off a season finale in which they went 0-for-2 (ignoring a drive that ended the game) against a Panthers team ranked 27th in red-zone defense.

That’s good news for the Eagles, who ranked 30th in red-zone defense this season. Personnel mismatches mentioned above could make this a more complicated equation, but the weaknesses from both sides inside the 20 will make the winner in those situations all the more important.

Heading into the playoffs, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni sticking with play-callers Brian Johnson and Matt Patricia

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