Coming up to the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (February 24), things aren’t looking bright for the Ukrainians, and particularly for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“God is usually on the side of the big battalions”, Voltaire allegedly said. Not always, but “usually”. So how much do you want to bet?
Coming up to the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (February 24), things aren’t looking bright for the Ukrainians, and particularly for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The war has not been going well: Ukraine’s vaunted summer offensive sputtered out with almost no gains. Russia’s winter offensive is showing equally unimpressive results so far, but the Russians always have that four-to-one numerical superiority on their side. (After all the refugees fled, there are probably no more than 35 million people left in Ukraine.)
More important than that is the fact that the Russians have accessed new sources of weapons and ammunition (mostly from Iran and North Korea) that give them fire superiority on the battlefield, while the flow of American money and arms to Ukraine has been blocked in Congress.
It has become a war of attrition in which the Russians can fire 10 000 artillery shells a day and the Ukrainians can fire back only 1 500-2 500. True, modern Western artillery is more accurate, but it has become a war of drones. Both sides have them and every target is equally vulnerable.
So the mood in Kyiv is somewhere between gloomy and grim and Zelensky is showing signs of panic. After a week of public dithering, he has fired General Valerii Zaluzhny, who has commanded Ukraine’s armed forces since the start of the war.
Zaluzhny had the misfortune to be in charge when the balance in battle shifted decisively in favour of the defensive. The last time that happened was at the start of the First World War in 1914, when defensive weapons became so effective (machine-guns, rapid-firing artillery, barbed wire, etc) that the soldiers had to take shelter in trenches.
It took four years for new generals to figure out ways to break through the trench lines and restore movement to the battlefield. It will probably take at least as long this time, and meanwhile everybody is stuck in the trenches again — which is bad luck for Ukraine.
Zaluzhny has figured out why Ukraine’s summer offensive failed, and was indiscreet enough to say it out loud: “First, I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose.”
But nothing could put the front into motion.
“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order to break this deadlock, we need something (as new as) gunpowder,” he concluded.
Welcome to 1916.
The first truly new instrument of destruction since the invention of gunpowder is nuclear weapons, and that took 800 years. This deadlock will not last so long — it’s only drones, precision-guided weapons, and electronic warfare, all just incremental improvements in existing technologies — but Ukraine probably cannot wait another two years.
That is clearly why Zelensky has fired Zaluzhny, a quite serviceable general who made no huge mistakes: the Ukrainian president has reached the point where he is hoping for a miracle. Replacing him with Oleksandr Syrsky, another serviceable but hardly stellar general, is unlikely to deliver that miracle.
This point always arrives in any war that does not achieve instant victory for one side or the other. Frustration and exhaustion begin to play bigger roles and people inevitably start calculating whether it is better to cut their losses (or keep their winnings so far) by opting for a compromise peace or at least a long-term ceasefire.
However, hanging on through a long and bloody war of attrition and “hoping for something to turn up” is not a terrible strategy. Politics and, especially war, is so capricious and unpredictable that something often does turn up.
For example, if Empress Elizabeth of Russia had not died from a stroke in 1761, Frederick the Great of Prussia would have been totally defeated and there might never have been a united Germany. World history would have been very different.
The major imponderables for Ukraine today are the electoral prospects of Donald Trump (who has effectively blocked all United States aid to Ukraine even before the election) and the longevity of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (many enemies, uncertain health, but cunning and only 71).
Zelensky’s job now is to calculate how much more territory Ukraine would lose in a ceasefire in 2025 than it would lose by making some kind of peace right now. If the answer is not all that much more (because the battlefield has been immobilised for both sides), then his best policy, for now, is probably to hang on and hope something turns up.
Dyer is a London-based independent journalist. His new book is titled The Shortest History of War.
Volodymyr Zelensky First World War Russians Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
News Related
-
, Nov. 28 — One of the most anticipated Android releases for 2023 has been the Google Pixel 8 lineup. The Pixel series is often considered the best of what Android has to offer since it brings the true stock Android experience. The Pixel 8 Pro was globally released on ...
See Details:
Google Pixel 8 Pro Review: Is this the best Android phone of 2023?
-
A blank space or an (NR) indicates no readings received. An (e) indicates that the water level has been estimated. An (w) indicates that the conditions were very windy, resulting in an inaccurate reading. Omatjenne Dam does not have abstraction facilities. The dam contents are according to the latest dam ...
See Details:
Namwater Dam Bulletin on Monday 27 November 2023
-
Dhaka, Nov. 27 — Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus has been appointed chair of the international advisory board of Moscow’s Financial University (under the government of the Russian Federation). On November 23, he joined a high-level strategic meeting with Prof Stanislav Prokofiev, Rector of the Financial University, and his colleagues. ...
See Details:
Dr Yunus appointed chair of Moscow Financial University's international advisory board
-
In a pivotal encounter at the International Cricket Council (ICC) Twenty20 World Cup Africa Final Monday, the Cricket Cranes faced Nigeria, knowing that a win could significantly boost their chances of securing one of the coveted tickets to the 2024 T20 World Cup in West Indies and the USA.Nigeria won ...
See Details:
Victory over Nigeria puts Uganda on the brink
-
Capture 1 The Bank Ghana (BoG) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has maintained the key policy rate at 30 percent, while introducing additional liquidity management measures to address excess liquidity and reinforce the disinflation process. Announcing the committee’s decision on Monday following its 115th meeting, BoG Governor Dr. Ernest Addison said ...
See Details:
BoG holds policy rate at 30%, tightens liquidity measures
-
Renita Holmes has been displaced four times in the past three years by rising rents With sea levels rising around the globe, Miami, in the US state of Florida, is facing an urgent need to adapt. As property investors turn their gaze inland, away from the exclusive low-lying beach area, ...
See Details:
When sea levels rise, so does your rent
-
Picture2 In a groundbreaking moment, Mrs. Adelaide Siaw Agyepong, CEO-American International School, has achieved yet another milestone by being crowned ‘Icon of Inspiration and Impact for the Year 2023’. The crowning achievement took place in Accra, where Mrs. Siaw Agyepong surpassed contemporaries to clinch this prestigious title at the 5th ...
See Details:
American International School CEO honoured as ‘Icon of Inspiration and Impact’
-
Freetown’s streets were almost empty on Sunday after a curfew was imposed Gunmen in Sierra Leone attacked a military barracks and freed hundreds of prisoners in a “co-ordinated and properly planned” attack, the country’s information minister has said. Sierra Leoneans spent Sunday under a nationwide curfew amid disarray in capital ...
See Details:
Sierra Leone prison breaks co-ordinated - minister
-
Freetown’s streets were almost empty on Sunday after a curfew was imposed Gunmen in Sierra Leone attacked a military barracks and freed hundreds of prisoners in a “co-ordinated and properly planned” attack, the country’s information minister has said. Sierra Leoneans spent Sunday under a nationwide curfew amid disarray in capital ...
See Details:
Address the rise of single parenthood
-
Freetown’s streets were almost empty on Sunday after a curfew was imposed Gunmen in Sierra Leone attacked a military barracks and freed hundreds of prisoners in a “co-ordinated and properly planned” attack, the country’s information minister has said. Sierra Leoneans spent Sunday under a nationwide curfew amid disarray in capital ...
See Details:
Hyundai Chief Picked as Auto Industry Leader of the Year
-
Freetown’s streets were almost empty on Sunday after a curfew was imposed Gunmen in Sierra Leone attacked a military barracks and freed hundreds of prisoners in a “co-ordinated and properly planned” attack, the country’s information minister has said. Sierra Leoneans spent Sunday under a nationwide curfew amid disarray in capital ...
See Details:
Unmarried People Under 35 Outnumber Married Ones
-
Freetown’s streets were almost empty on Sunday after a curfew was imposed Gunmen in Sierra Leone attacked a military barracks and freed hundreds of prisoners in a “co-ordinated and properly planned” attack, the country’s information minister has said. Sierra Leoneans spent Sunday under a nationwide curfew amid disarray in capital ...
See Details:
European interior ministers in Hungary to discuss migration
-
Freetown’s streets were almost empty on Sunday after a curfew was imposed Gunmen in Sierra Leone attacked a military barracks and freed hundreds of prisoners in a “co-ordinated and properly planned” attack, the country’s information minister has said. Sierra Leoneans spent Sunday under a nationwide curfew amid disarray in capital ...
See Details:
Japan on the watch for unlicensed taxis around Narita airport amid foreign tourism spike
-
Freetown’s streets were almost empty on Sunday after a curfew was imposed Gunmen in Sierra Leone attacked a military barracks and freed hundreds of prisoners in a “co-ordinated and properly planned” attack, the country’s information minister has said. Sierra Leoneans spent Sunday under a nationwide curfew amid disarray in capital ...
See Details:
ECOWAS to send high-powered delegation on solidarity visit to Sierra Leone
OTHER NEWS
Despite doing education at the university, Mellon Kenyangi, also known as Mama Bear, did not think of going to class, and teaching students was her dream job.“Since it was not ...
Read more »
213 Sri Lanka Cricket’s Chairman of Selectors, Pramodya Wickramasinghe reported to the Sports Ministry’s Special Investigation Unit( SMSIU) for the Prevention of Sports Offences yesterday for the second day. He ...
Read more »
137 Malindu Dairy (Pvt) Ltd., a leading food production company in Sri Lanka, won the Silver Award in the medium-scale dairy and associated products category at the Industrial Excellence Awards ...
Read more »
Africans Urged to Invest Among themselves, Explore Investment Opportunities in Continent Addis Ababa, November 27/2023(ENA)-The Embassy of Angola in Ethiopia has organized lecture on the “Foreign Investment Opportunities in Angola ...
Read more »
144 The dynamic front row player Mohan Wimalaratne will lead the Police Sports Club Rugby team at the upcoming Nippon Paint Sri Lanka Rugby Major League XV-a-side Rugby Tournament scheduled ...
Read more »
Dozens of people living with disabilities from New Hope Inclusive in Entumbane, Bulawayo on Saturday last week received an early Christmas gift in the form of groceries. The groceries were ...
Read more »
The East African Community (EAC) Summit of Heads of State has admitted the Federal Republic of Somalia to the regional bloc, making it its 8th member country. The decision was ...
Read more »