Here's our bout-by-bout breakdown as No. 1 Penn State faces No. 3 Iowa on the road

Feb. 8—Penn State’s wrestling season is slowly coming to an end, but it wouldn’t be complete without facing Iowa.

Friday night’s match will be the last one on the road for the Nittany Lions. If they get the win, it will be head coach Cael Sanderson’s 200th career win at the helm. A win also gives Penn State an opportunity to claim the program’s 1000th win at home Monday inside the Bryce Jordan Center, where it will face Rutgers at 7 p.m.

The Iowa dual will have five top-10 tilts with a No. 1 versus No. 2 matchup early in the dual. Nine of the ten bouts will feature ranked wrestlers against one another — should each team send out their usual starters.

Here’s a look at how we think it could play out late Friday night:

125 pounds: No. 2 Braeden Davis vs. No. 7 Drake Ayala

Nate Cobler: This weight class has been wide open all season. The No. 1 wrestler in the country seems to be a bad spot to be in, since they can’t seem to hold on to it. Davis has done nothing but climb his way up to the No. 2 ranking due to his 14-0 record, and wins over ranked guys like Michigan’s Michael DeAugustino, Oregon State’s Brandon Kaylor and Army’s Ethan Bergnic. The true freshman got lucky last week against Ohio State’s Vinny Kilkeary. Ayala was in that No. 1 spot midway through January, but he suffered a loss to Purdue’s Matt Ramos, who is the current No. 1. This is Ramos’ second stint at being the top wrestler in the country. Ayala is 13-3 with two of those three losses coming over the previous three weeks. Prediction: Davis by decision.

Jon Sauber: A few wrestlers can be credited for Penn State’s rise from “easy favorite to win the national title” to “potential greatest team of the Cael Sanderson era,” and Davis is one of them. This is going to be another tough test for the freshman, though, and the early stages of this dual — assuming it starts at 125 pounds — will likely be far more nervy for Penn State fans than the end of it. Davis remains undefeated after a, uh, fortunate decision for Penn State at the end of his matchup with Ohio State 125-pounder Vinny Kilkeary. The decision not to award Kilkeary with a takedown gave Davis the win and kept him undefeated, but that may not be the case after Friday night. Ayala, despite his recent struggles, was the No. 1 wrestler in the class earlier this year and while it’s been a chaotic season at 125 pounds, I expect the Hawkeye to get back on track in a tight one Friday night. Prediction: Ayala by decision.

133 pounds: No. 6 Aaron Nagao vs. No. 20 Cullan Schriever

Cobler: On paper, this match shouldn’t even be close. But, as the saying goes, “that’s why they wrestle.” Nagao is 8-3 on the year, but over the last three matches, he’s wrestled to a 1-2 mark. He seemed like a fish out of water against Ohio State’s Nic Bouzakis last Friday in a 13-7 loss that wasn’t that close on the mat. Schriever was the backup here behind former Penn State wrestler Brody Teske. Schriever has been the starter since Jan. 19 and is 3-1 during that time. He enters the bout after suffering a 5-2 loss to Michigan’s Dylan Ragusin, who pinned Nagao in sudden victory. Prediction: Nagao by decision.

Sauber: Nagao hasn’t been great of late and a loss by Davis should make the crowd a factor early at Carver Hawkeye Arena. That could make this closer than it should be in the early stages. Nagao fell behind early against Nic Bouzakis of Ohio State and was unable to climb out of that hole to get a win. If that happens again Friday, things could spiral quickly. However, there’s a large enough gap between Nagao and Schriever that he should be able to earn the win. Prediction: Nagao by decision.

141 pounds: No. 1 Beau Barlett vs. No. 2 Real Woods

Cobler: Bartlett has had tough back-to-back weeks. Last week, he earned a 4-1 sudden-victory win over Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez, who was ranked No. 3 at the time. Now, he gets to face Woods, who is coming into the bout after getting absolutely dominated by Michigan’s Sergio Lemley, who Bartlett beat 7-5. Bartlett and Woods squared off in the Bryce Jordan Center dual last year with the Hawkeye coming out on top, 4-1. If Bartlett is able to get by Woods, it’ll set him up as the No. 1 seed for the Big Ten Championships, and quite possibly the NCAA Championships. Prediction: Woods by decision.

Sauber: If you had asked me earlier this season, this would have been one of the weights I would have been most confident that Iowa would take in this dual. Now I’m not so sure. Woods should probably still be the favorite to win the conference and NCAA titles at 141 pounds, but it’s now much easier to imagine that not being the case. Sergio Lemley’s easy win over Woods last week in the Iowa-Michigan dual has cast some doubt about how dominate he can and will be down the stretch. That being said, Bartlett isn’t one to push the pace and that’s going to keep this one close, as it always seems to be with the Nittany Lion. Prediction: Woods by decision.

149 pounds: No. 10 Tyler Kasak vs. No. 12 Caleb Rathjen

Cobler: These two have had a similar path to this point in the season. Kasak competed with David Evans for the starting spot, which seemed to come to an end when Kasak topped Evans, 4-2, in the Mat Town Open finals. Kasak has been quite the replacement with Shayne Van Ness gone for the year. Rathjen was in a battle for the starting spot with Victor Voinovich, but their competition came to a close when Rathjen beat Voinovich, 6-3, in the Solider Salute at the end of 2023. In the new year, Rathjen has been the starter, going 2-2 with losses to Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett, who is No. 1 in the country, and Illinois’ Kannon Webster, who is currently No. 9. Prediction: Kasak by decision.

Sauber: Kasak has a chance to make some serious noise as a freshman, which has to be a welcome sign after the stability Shayne Van Ness brought was wiped away when he was declared out for the season with an injury. The freshman hasn’t lost to anyone outside of the program this season, falling to Bartlett in a bout at 141 pounds back in November at the Black Knight Invitational. He won over Ohio State’s Dylan D’Emilio in what was a good test, and should be able to do the same over Rathjen to swing the score back even in the dual. Prediction: Kasak by decision.

157 pounds: No. 1 Levi Haines vs. No. 5 Jared Franek

Cobler: This match will continue the run of ranked wrestlers facing off. It is also the only other top-five matchup that will occur. These two wrestlers have good records against common opponents, with Haines sitting at 10-1 and Franek sporting a 17-3 mark. Franek comes into the match on a loss, 3-2 in ultimate tiebreakers, to Michigan’s Will Lewan. Haines edged Lewan, 2-1, several weeks ago. This one appears to a bout that could go in either direction. Prediction: Haines by decision.

Sauber: Haines is the top-ranked wrestler at 157 pounds for a reason, but the gap at the weight is much smaller than it is at weights like 174 and 197. He’s still a potential national champion who can rack up some bonus points for Penn State this coming postseason, but still has yet to reach his peak this season. This matchup with Franek is a chance to show he’s on the ascent as the regular season winds down. He may not dominate, but he should prove he’s the better wrestler in the matchup. Prediction: Haines by decision.

165 pounds: No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink vs. No. 6 Michael Caliendo

Cobler: The last seven matches that Mesenbrink has wrestled, six of his opponents were ranked. He earned bonus points against five of those wrestlers. He was just two points away from staying perfect with the bonus points to ranked wrestler ratio. Caliendo comes into the dual with a 15-1 record, and a 12-match winning streak. His loss came back in November to Iowa State’s David Carr, 16-4. He faced Michigan’s backup in Beau Mantanona last week and kept Iowa from being shut out with a 9-4 win. However, it wasn’t an easy win for Caliendo. Prediction: Mesenbrink by decision.

Sauber: The number next to Mesenbrink’s name doesn’t do his season justice. This is a chance for him to continue his rise up the rankings and keep proving he’s a real threat to win the national title at 165 pounds. He’s been dominant this year, scoring bonus points far more often than not, no matter who he’s lined up across from. Caliendo’s match last week, where he struggled against Michigan’s backup, doesn’t bode well for him either. Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision.

174 pounds: No. 1 Carter Starocci vs. No. 7 Patrick Kennedy

Cobler: This bout ends the streak of ranked wrestlers against one another in this dual, until we get to 197 pounds. The pair have just two common opponents in Penn’s Nick Incontrera and former Nebraska wrestler Michael Labriola. Kennedy only wrestled these two once and lost to both of them. Starocci has beaten Labriola four times and Incontrera twice with bonus points in his most recent matchups against them. This is one of three matches to see bonus points scored. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.

Sauber: Starocci is the heavy favorite to win the Big Ten and national title at 174 pounds and Kennedy isn’t going to be the wrestler to get in his way. While it would be more entertaining (with a similar result) if Gabe Arnold was going for Iowa after he disparaged Starocci last year, Penn State fans will have to settle for a run of the mill dominant win. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.

184 pounds: No. 6 Bernie Truax vs. Aiden Riggins/Gabe Arnold

Cobler: In a bout that could be the only one without two ranked wrestlers facing off, it heavily favors Truax as long as Riggins, who is 7-8, is in there. Riggins is on a two-match winning streak after losing six straight. Truax looks to bounce back after he got caught and pinned by Ohio State’s Ryder Rogotzke last Friday. The interesting part here could be if the Hawkeyes decide to have Arnold on the mat. He’s known for talking smack about Starocci last year as senior in high school, but he hasn’t wrestled since the Solider Salute at the end of December. He has 11 wins on the year, but four of them don’t count into his 7-0 record as they were against Division III wrestlers. With Arnold not competing since December and a rumored injury, look for Riggins to be out there. Prediction: Truax by decision.

Sauber: Arnold going here could potentially flip the result, but if he doesn’t then Truax is in a good spot to bounce back after getting caught last week and losing by fall against Ryder Rogotzke of Ohio State. We’ll assume Riggins will go for the Hawkeyes, which means this is a chance for more bonus points for Penn State as things continue to roll in the Nittany Lions’ favor. Prediction: Truax by major decision.

197 pounds: No. 1 Aaron Brooks vs. No. 11 Zach Glazier

Cobler: Brooks is 10-0 on the season and has bonus points in all 10 wins — three pins, six technical falls and a major decision. He started the year by winning his bouts with either a technical fall or a pin, and looks poised to win the Hodge Trophy. Maryland’s Jaxon Smith broke that streak when Brooks was only able to win 13-4. Brooks got back on track last Friday by teching Ohio State’s Luke Geog, 22-6. Glazier also sports an undefeated mark at 14-0, and has 10 bonus-point victories. However, he hasn’t been as dominant as Brooks with five technical falls and five major decisions. Prediction: Brooks by major decision.

Sauber: This is just a matter of how many bonus points you think Brooks can rack up with the dual well in hand. He continues to dominate everyone in front of him and looks like the best pound-for-pound wrestler in the country. Glazier has been great for the Hawkeyes this year and would stand a chance against most wrestlers at 197 pounds. Brooks isn’t most wrestlers. Prediction: Brooks by major decision.

285 pounds: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet vs. No. 29 Bradley Hill/Ben Kueter

Cobler: Last week, the prediction for Davis was that the match was his to lose, which he should’ve. This week, the prediction is the same for Kerkvliet — it’s his to lose. Whether the Hawkeyes throw out Hill or the two-sport athlete in Kueter, Kerkvliet is collecting bonus points here. Kueter played for Iowa’s football team in the fall. Hill has started all the matches except two where Kueter stepped in and won both. Hill is 11-4 and enters the bout after suffering an 11-2 loss to Michigan’s Lucas Davison, who Kerkvliet beat, 8-2, in January. Prediction: Kerkvliet by major decision.

Sauber: Yet another wrestler for Penn State who looks primed to win an individual title at his weight. Kerkvliet has been excellent this season and that’s not going to stop Friday night. You have to think the crowd at Carver Hawkeye Arena will be much quieter at this point in the night as the reality of Cael Sanderson winning his 200th dual as the Nittany Lion head coach settles in. Kerkvliet should roll to a win. Prediction: Kerkvliet by major decision.

Final score

Cobler: Iowa has a chance to spoil what could be a historic night for the Nittany Lions. It would take a lot for it to happen, but it is possible. However, Penn State just has too much potential to score bonus points in the second part of its lineup that can make up for earlier losses — should there be multiple losses. Prediction: Penn State 30, Iowa 3.

Sauber: Maybe the Hawkeyes have a chance if they can pull off an upset here or there, but even then, the potential outcomes of this dual lean heavily in Penn State’s favor. Sanderson’s Nittany Lions have dominated the sport for most of the last 13 years and somehow this might be the best iteration of the program he’s had yet. The Hawkeyes won’t be the ones to knock off the Nittany Lions — and neither will anyone else. Prediction: Penn State 29, Iowa 6.

No. 1 Penn State (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) at No. 3 Iowa (10-1, 5-1)

When: 9 p.m. Friday

Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa

Radio: WOWY (103.1 FM)

TV: Big Ten Network

Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com

X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest

No. 14 Rutgers (10-4, 3-3 Big Ten) at No. 1 Penn State (8-0, 5-0)

When: 7 p.m. Monday

Where: Bryce Jordan Center

Radio: WOWY (103.1 FM)

TV: Big Ten Network

Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com

X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest

Note: Rutgers hosts Maryland on Friday night

Nittany Lions vs. Scarlet Knights

125: No. 4 Braeden Davis (14-0) vs.

No. 19 Dean Peterson (9-4)

133: No. 5 Aaron Nagao (8-3) vs.

No. 10 Dylan Shawver (18-5)

141: No. 2 Beau Bartlett (14-0) vs.

No. 19 Mitch Moore (11-3)

149: No. 12 Tyler Kasak (11-1) vs.

No. 26 Michael Cetta (12-5)

157: No. 1 Levi Haines (11-0) vs.

Andrew Clark (6-4) OR AJ DeSantis (5-10)

165: No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink (15-0) vs.

Anthony White (9-10) OR Luke Gayer (9-9)

174: No. 1 Carter Starocci (9-0) vs.

No. 13 Jackson Turley (9-3)

184: No. 5 Bernie Truax (8-2) vs.

No. 19 Brian Soldano (11-7)

197: No. 1 Aaron Brooks (10-0) vs.

No. 22 John Poznanski (12-2)

285: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (9-0) vs.

No. 8 Yara Slavikouski (14-2)

This story was originally published February 8, 2024, 12:58 PM.

(c)2024 the Centre Daily Times (State College, Pa.) Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.