New ICBM Is Seen Going 37% Over $96 Billion Cost, Forcing a US Review

The Pentagon building in Arlington, Virginia, US.

(Bloomberg) — The US Air Force’s new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program is now estimated to cost at least 37% more than the previously projected $96 billion, triggering a formal Pentagon review that will include whether to scale back or terminate the project.

Costs for the Sentinel may increase to as much as $162 million per missile when calculated in 2020 dollars, up from $118 million each, according to a new estimate being sent to Congress on Thursday. Those costs include new projections for expenditures such as construction of silos and launch control centers, and put the program’s overall pricetag at $131.5 billion in today’s dollars.

The new missiles that are being developed by Northrop Grumman Corp. to replace the 1970s-era Minuteman are a key element of the effort to modernize the US air-land-sea triad of nuclear weapons and counter growing Russian and Chinese nuclear arsenals.

Andrew Hunter, assistant Air Force secretary for acquisition, said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the increasing cost estimate “reflects all components of the $96 billion program” and isn’t being driven by Northrop’s development work.

The review that’s being undertaken is required by a 1982 law when major defense programs exceed their original cost benchmarks. The Air Force plans to buy about 660 test and operational Sentinel missiles.

Although the new ICBM has substantial support in Congress, the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff will reevaluate program requirements including missile quantities, the fielding schedule and construction plans while reaffirming the program’s rationale and justifying to Congress why it shouldn’t be terminated. Bloomberg News first reported the possible review last month.

Earlier: New ICBM Risks Breaching Congressional Lid If Costs Soar

The new cost estimates may embolden arms control advocacy groups and lawmakers including Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren who have pressed for termination of the Sentinel and extending the life of Minuteman III missiles.

William LaPlante, the undersecretary of defense for acquisitions, said in a statement that “we are prepared to fulfill the department’s statutory responsibilities and conduct a robust review” to determine what caused the Sentinel’s cost increase. He said “we will keep our partners in Congress informed and maintain open communications to the greatest extent possible.”

The Pentagon and Air Force cost estimate in September 2020, which was required to begin the program’s current engineering and manufacturing development phase, failed to capture the massive size and scope of the launch facilities and launch control construction effort, Hunter said.

“The funny thing about once-in-a-century projects,” he said, is that “there’s a lot that was not appreciated. It was like we were doing it for the first time.”

The Command and Launch segment of the Sentinel program includes more than 400 new launch facilities, thousands of miles of modern fiber-optic networks, the acquisition of permanent and temporary real estate easements with hundreds of landowners and support of the workforce that will convert the launch facilities from  Minuteman III to Sentinel use, according to the Air Force.

Hunter said the cost increase would have little impact on Air Force spending over the next few years but would affect spending later this decade.

“Our team is committed to supporting the Air Force as it assesses and updates acquisition cost forecasts to include construction projects, production, and deployment of the weapon system,” Northrop Grumman said in a statement.

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