ATP Rankings winners and losers: Daniil Medvedev eyes second place, Rafael Nadal set for another big drop

Rafael Nadal leaves the court in Brisbane

Novak Djokovic will keep the world No 1 ranking after the 2024 Australian Open with second place only be decided after the final, but further down the list Rafael Nadal will drop 192 places.

With the top six seeds reaching the quarter-final at Melbourne Park, there are not too many changes in the top 10 although finalist Daniil Medvedev has a big opportunity to replace Carlos Alcaraz at No 2.

Following his defeat to Jannik Sinner in the semi-final Djokovic will finish the tournament with 9,855 points – a mere 600 points ahead of Alcaraz, who would’ve returned to No 1 had he reached final.

But Alcaraz’s quarter-final defeat to Alexander Zverev means he is in danger of losing second place to Medvedev.

Following his victory over Zverev in the last four, Medvedev sits on 8,765 points and he will move to 9,465 points should he win Sunday’s final against Sinner, which will leave him only 390 points adrift of Djokovic.

As for Sinner, the Italian moved to 7,610 points after reaching his maiden Grand Slam final, but he will remain at No 4 as a win over Medvedev will only be good enough to move him to 8,310 points.

The rest of the top 10 sees Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz and Taylor Fritz all move up while Stefanos Tsitsipas drops to No 10.

Top 10 in Live ATP Rankings

1. Novak Djokovic 9,855

2. Carlos Alcaraz 9,255

3. Daniil Medvedev 8,765

4. Jannik Sinner 7,610

5. Andrey Rublev 5,050

6 Alexander Zverev 5,030

7. Holger Rune 3,685

8. Hubert Hurkacz 3,540

9. Taylor Fritz 3,195

10. Stefanos Tsitsipas 3,025

There are minimal changes in the rest of the top 20 with Frances Tiafoe moving up three places to No 14 and Cameron Norrie back in the top 20 after also getting a three-place boost.

Other Projected Rankings Winners So Far

– French wildcard Arthur Cazaux stunned eighth seed Holger Rune in the second round and followed it up with victory 28th seed Tallon Griekspoor before he lost in the fourth round. He is set to move up 39 places to a career-high No 83.

– Flavio Cobolli came through qualifying and upset 18th seed Nicolas Jarry in the first round before eventually losing in the third round. The Italian is set for a 24-spot jump to No 76.

– Nuno Borges enjoyed a dream tournament as he defeated 23rd seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and 13th seed Grigor Dimitrov and his reward is a spot in the top 50 as he is projected to move up 22 places to No 47.

– Miomir Kecmanovic reached the fourth round at Melbourne Park before losing to Carlos Alcaraz and he is set to return to the top 50 with a 19-place rise to No 41.

– Alex Michelsen is one of the rising stars of the game and the 19-year-old’s run to the third round will result in an 18-place rise to career-high No 76.

The Projected Rankings Losers So Far

Rafael Nadal is set to drop 192 places to No 638 as he had 45 points to defend at the Australian Open following his second-round defeat last year, but he missed the tournament due to injury.

The 22-time Grand Slam winner was in danger of slumping out of the ATP Rankings following his inactivity last year.

However, there is good news as – despite missing the season-opening Grand Slams – he has 50 points thanks to his run to the quarter-final of the Brisbane International.

Nadal started the year at No 1,160, but his two wins in Brisbane helped him to rise to No 446, but he will now drop out of the top 600 again.

– American JJ Wolf is set for a 20-place drop to No 77 after losing in the first round.

– Yoshihito Nishioka will slump to No 84 from No 61 after he also lost in the first round.

– Alexander Shevchenko is projected to move down 11 places to No 59 following his early defeat in Melbourne.

– Jiri Lehecka lost in the second round and that will push him down eight places to No 31.

– Sebastian Korda is set to exit the top 20 as he will lose seven places and drop to 33.

– Andy Murray will stay in the top 50 for now, but he is on the brink as he is projected to drop five places to no 49.