The lesson of the draft’s first round: Offense rules the NFL

The lesson of the draft’s first round: Offense rules the NFL

Every surprise and twist of the NFL draft’s first round pointed in the same direction. The Atlanta Falcons used the eighth pick to draft Kirk Cousins’s backup. The New York Jets declined to add a skill player for Aaron Rodgers. The New York Giants didn’t attempt to solve their quarterback issue, but the Denver Broncos did. The many disparate decisions were united by a common theme: Even when teams zagged from what was expected, they still wound up drafting for offense. Offense, offense, offense. So. Much. Offense.

Thursday night provided the most lopsided first round in NFL history. The first 14 picks were offensive players, a streak broken when the Indianapolis Colts took UCLA pass rusher Laiatu Latu. By night’s end, the 23 offensive players chosen in the first round shattered the previous mark of 19, set in 2009, 2004 and 1968. Six quarterbacks were chosen in the first 12 picks; only nine defensive players were taken in the first round.

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Even after a season in which scoring dropped and the Kansas City Chiefs rode their defense to a Super Bowl, the NFL doubled down on the era’s heavy skew toward offense. Naturally, quarterbacks led the way. The 1983 record of six first-round quarterbacks gained company, and quarterbacks were drafted with the first three picks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye) for the fourth time.

The eighth pick provided both the shock of the draft and a symbol of the NFL’s desperation for offense. Bereft of pass rushers and defensive playmakers, having signed Cousins for $45 million a season, the Falcons seemed like the ideal candidate to break the offensive stranglehold. The latest a defensive player had ever come off the board was eighth overall, when cornerback Jaycee Horn got picked in 2021.

The Falcons scoffed at logic and drafted quarterback Michael Penix Jr. They appeared to be in win-now mode after the Cousins signing, especially in the lightweight NFC South. And yet they drafted a 23-year-old quarterback with every defensive player available. Quarterback is so important that it’s hard to over-invest at the position. The Falcons sure tried.

If the Las Vegas Raiders entered the night hopeful to draft a quarterback with Gardner Minshew atop their depth chart, they were wondering what the heck happened when their pick arrived at 13. Only 12 selections happened before their turn, and six of them had been quarterbacks after the Denver Broncos took Bo Nix with the 12th pick. The Raiders went to the quarterback store and found empty shelves.

What happened? The draft annually provides both a judgment of a collegiate class and a snapshot of how the league approaches roster construction. The extreme offensive tilt of this first round reflected both. The record offensive output is partly happenstance owing to the particular players available. But it also indicates what NFL teams value and how players are selected for positions in the broader football landscape.

Multiple data points suggest breaking the 20-offensive-player barrier may be more fluke than trend. Only two years ago, the first five picks were defenders. Even last year, when quarterbacks were taken with the first two picks, defensive players were chosen third, fifth and seventh. If it’s a trend, it’s starting now.

This year’s draft class was also unique. It matched ample quarterback-needy teams (like always) with a confluence of quarterbacks talented and experienced enough to justify a first-round pick (which rarely happens). After the NFL struggled for years to find capable offensive linemen, this year produced a surplus — nine taken in round one. Meanwhile, the college game happened to generate few high-end pass rushers and cornerbacks this year.

The offensive glut, though, was not purely random. NFL front offices have leaned further into positional value, almost uniformly refusing to use extensive resources — either cap space or draft capital — on positions outside of quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, pass rusher and cornerback.

Simply, there are more premium offensive positions than defensive positions. No safeties or middle linebackers were chosen Thursday night, and only one interior defensive lineman was taken: Byron Murphy II at pick No. 16. Murphy is regarded as a quick-footed defender who can pressure quarterbacks from the inside. Defensive linemen who specialize in run-stuffing are no longer considered first-round worthy.

The makeup of Thursday’s first round also says something about how players find their position in the sport. The best athletes are gravitating toward roles the modern game esteems most. A generation ago, Brock Bowers might have been a terrifying middle linebacker. A youth coach probably would have deployed Malik Nabers at running back. At those positions, both probably would have waited another round or two this week. As a pass-catching tight end and field-stretching wide receiver, they went 13th to the Raiders and sixth to the Giants, respectively.

Annually, it seems, NFL teams find a hugely talented wide receiver class. Seven wideouts were taken Thursday night. It’s not by chance. The best football-playing athletes are placed at wide receiver from the first time they strap on a helmet. Faster, stronger athletes were once made bell cow running backs; now, they are now split out wide. Down to the lowest levels, football has become a pass-first game, and wideout attracts the best raw talent.

If receivers are so plentiful, why are NFL teams not hewing to supply-and-demand tenets and waiting to draft them? Small degrees of ability at the position matter. Wideouts frame the possibilities and limits of an offense. If a receiver can dominate single coverage or easily find space in zones, it forces changes to what a defense can do. It’s the inverse of how a great pass rusher can disrupt an offense with his presence alone.

Sure, the Giants could have waited a round and taken, say, Oregon’s Troy Franklin — who wasn’t drafted in the first round — instead of Nabers. But small differences can change an entire attack. NFL teams, more than ever, are nearly singular in their focus to find those edges — on the offensive side of the ball.