2023-24 college football bowl games: Best confidence picks, pool predictions, computer rankings

Derek Mason Vanderbilt

The 2023-24 college football bowl schedule is set and there will be 43 games between the start of bowl season on Dec. 16 and the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Jan. 8 in Houston. Both teams will be nationally ranked in 10 of those games, including what could be a high-scoring matchup in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1. No. 23 Liberty will represent the Group of Five against No. 8 Oregon in a battle between two of the most prolific offenses in the country.

Oregon is a sizable 18.5-point favorite in the college football bowl odds via SportsLine consensus, but does that mean that you should be backing them big in college football bowl confidence pools, or could an eager Liberty squad pull off the big upset? Winning a bowl confidence pool is all about nailing your top picks and sprinkling in a few upsets here and there to differentiate yourself from your opponents. Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, don’t miss the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine.

Top college football bowl confidence predictions

One of the top 2023-24 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 6 Georgia gets a comfortable win over No. 5 Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl at 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 30 in Miami Gardens. The Bulldogs have been the most trustworthy team in college football over the past three seasons, winning 29 of their last 30 games. Their 29-game winning streak was snapped in a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the model projects

The Seminoles are playing without star quarterback Jordan Travis (leg) and one of their top wide receivers in Johnny Wilson, who opted out of this game. Backup quarterbacks Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn have not been impressive in relief, combining for less than 200 total passing yards in wins over Florida and Louisville. They are facing one of the top defenses in the country in the Orange Bowl, which is why Georgia is winning in almost 80% of the model’s simulations.

Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: No. 25 Kansas State handles No. 18 NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET. After a disappointing 24-3 loss to Duke in the middle of the season, NC State managed to rip off five wins in a row to close out the regular season. However, none of those opponents were ranked at the time and Dave Doeren’s squad has struggled in bowl settings of late.

The Wolfpack have lost the three bowl games they’ve played in against Maryland, Kentucky and Texas A&M. Against the Terrapins last season at the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, NC State was actually favored by 2 points but ultimately lost 16-12 after producing only 296 yards of total offense and turning the ball over twice. Offense has been the issue again for NC State and Doeren’s squad could struggle to keep up with a Kansas State squad that 10th in the nation in points per game (37.8), which is why the model is confidently backing the Wildcats here. See all of the model’s college football bowl confidence picks here.

How to make college football bowl confidence picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are 19 teams that win at least 65% of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model’s picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins every college football bowl game, and which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past six-plus season, and find out.

2023-24 college football bowl schedule

See full bowl confidence picks at SportsLine

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern, 11 a.m. ET

New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State, 2:15 p.m. ET

Cure Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio), 3:30 p.m. ET

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State, 5:45 p.m. ET

LA Bowl: Boise State vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ET

Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California, 9:15 p.m. ET

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky, 2:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse vs. USF, 8 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 23

Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State, noon

Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Troy, noon

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison, 3:30 p.m. ET

Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State, 3:30 p.m. ET

68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama, 7 p.m. ET

Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah, 7:30 p.m. ET

Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina, 10:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Bowling Green, 2 p.m. ET

First Responder Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State, 5:30 p.m. ET

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs. Kansas, 9 p.m. ET

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ET

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. ET

Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC, 8 p.m. ET

Texas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College, 11 a.m. ET

Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Rutgers, 2:15 p.m. ET

Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 25 Kansas State vs. No. 18 North Carolina State, 5:45 p.m. ET

Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Arizona, 9:15 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 29

Gator Bowl: No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky, noon ET

Sun Bowl: No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Oregon State, 2 p.m. ET

Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis, 3:30 p.m. ET

Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri, 8 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, noon ET

Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn, 2 p.m. ET

Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia, 4 p.m. ET

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo, 4:30 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 13 LSU vs. Wisconsin, noon ET

Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa, 1 p.m. ET

Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty, 1 p.m. ET

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama, 5 p.m. ET

Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas, 8:45 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 8

CFP National Championship Game: Winner of Rose Bowl vs. Winner of Sugar Bowl, 7:30 p.m. ET