- April presidential election polling shows Biden marginally ahead of Trump with seven months until November’s showdown
- Follows series of national surveys with the former president far ahead of Biden
- Poll spells trouble for Biden with black voters in six swing states favoring Trump
A series of general election polls have shown President Joe Biden, 81, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, 77, by a few points with just seven months until the 2020 showdown.
Despite this slight boost in recent head-to-head matchups with Trump, the president is slipping with black voters in swing states, which is a critical voting demographic in the 2024 election and could be detrimental for Biden’s chances of reelection.
A Wall Street Journal poll taken earlier this month reveals that black registered voters in six of seven swing states considered would cast their ballot for former President Trump over Biden if the election were held today.
In Wisconsin, one of the swing states in the poll, the two geriatric candidates were tied.
Meanwhile, several polls taken in April show Biden either in a tie or pulling ahead of Trump by between one and four percentage points.
New presidential election polling in April shows President Joe Biden slightly pulling ahead of Donald Trump with just seven months until November’s showdown
But separate polling spells trouble for Biden in his 2024 reelection bid with black voters in six of the seven swing states favoring Trump over the current president. Pictured: Blacks for Trump members rally outside Fulton County Jail in Atlanta, Georgia in August 2023 to support the president as he arrived to turn himself in and have his mugshot taken
The results of all the general election polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight average in April fall within their respective margins of error.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 4-8 among 833 registered voters had the largest gap with Biden in the lead by 4 points – 41 percent to 37 percent.
Two separate national polls have the two candidates evenly tied at 43 percent, but a third survey conducted by TIPP Insights has them tied at 38 percent when third party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are considered.
The same TIPP Insights poll taken April 3-5 shows Biden ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points (40-43 percent) when the former and current president are the only two considered in the survey among 1,265 registered voters.
A Morning Consult poll conducted April 5-7 among 6,236 registered voters – by far the largest sample size – shows Trump ahead of Biden by 1 percentage point.
While nationally polling is important, regional surveys in swing states are more indicative of how the 2024 election might sway with just seven states creating the determining factor that could decide the results in November.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are being closely watched in the walk-up to the 2024 presidential election.
While polling in the battleground states often swings between the Democratic and Republican candidates, recent WSJ polling shows that Biden is losing steam among black voters in these states.
North Carolina is where he sees the biggest drop off with this voting bloc as 49 percent say they would vote for Trump if the election were held today compared to the 43 percent who say they would vote for Biden.
Wall Street Journal April polling shows Trump ahead among black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – and tied with Biden in Wisconsin
In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 5 percentage points among black voters and in Nevada by 4 percent.
The margin of error for the Journal poll is 4 percentage points and 600 registered voters were polled in each state.
Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania all fall within the margin of error between 1 and 3 percent, but still show black voters there favor Trump over Biden.
‘I think winning back more Black men is going to be key for him,’ said Democratic pollster Michael Bocian, who conducted the WSJ survey, when discussing Biden’s chances in 2024.
Wisconsin was the only swing state where Biden tied with Trump and the president did not win majority favor among black voters in any of the seven in the survey.
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